July 19, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Legion Storm | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Mission | 1.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ridolfo | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Therisastormbrewin | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quintarelli | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gratto Swing | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lorcan | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Destiny Over Fate | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | First Forever | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Carrizo | 1.60 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Queen Kahen | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bronco Sally | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Movie Score | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | L. A. Page | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Paradiso | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Andretta | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Corey Scores | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Doll | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tatterazzi | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | J J Jen | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dearly Declared | 4.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Plink Freud | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Great Johanna | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tax Me Naught | 30.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kitty Therapy | 15.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rhinegold | 30.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Nasty Affair | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Blame It On Mom | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sir Ballantine | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shareholder Value | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indian Guide | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bolita Boyz | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Javelin | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Great Going | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Getoffmyback | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kiawah Sunset | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Finite | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mrs. Danvers | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Inveterate | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Larry’s Baby | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Kisses | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cat’s Pajamas | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Cadey | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Cross Border | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tactical Pursuit (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Herecomesyourman | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Clear for Action | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | He Iz Gone | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Willing to Speed | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Right Hand | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Labeq | 10.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rhode Island | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Violent Delights | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Whiskey Is My Wine | 10.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Quality Choice | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Soul Fight | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Lemonist | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Neepawa | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Midnight Tea Time | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cape Angel | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Pillar Mountain (IRE) | 2.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Krewe Chief | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kulin Rock | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sentry | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Violet Blue | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Crackspeed (ARG) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Winter Union | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Engage | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | He Hate Me | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Speightsford | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Honorable Treasure | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bon Raison | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mr. Dougie Fresh | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Trumpets | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake George S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Regal Glory | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Dogtag | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Blowout (GB) | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Mackem Bullet (IRE) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Winter Sunset | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Espresso Shot | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Stillwater Cove | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Known But to God | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Final Say | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Goose Drank Wine | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Impunity | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Super Silver | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sneads | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dark Storm | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Claytnthelionheart | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Smidge | 50.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ranger Up | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Storm Rider | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Northern Haze | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.