July 17, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Markhan | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Repeat Repeat | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Whitman’s Poetry | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gaye Breeze (IRE) | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cite | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roller Rolls On | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zeppelin Ride | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Renown (GB) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Rick Violette S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mission Wrapitup | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Theitalianamerican | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Listentoyourheart | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sky of Hook | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Torres Del Paine | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | Fully Vested | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Pete’s Play Call | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Pagliacci | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Storm Advisory | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jewel Can Disco | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gemonteer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Stolen Pistol | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tibr | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Discretionary Marq | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Seanow | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | The Sicarii | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | True Blue Giant | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Flat Rate | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Hijacker | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Spectator Sport | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 13A | 7 | Jemography | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | False Info | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hope Again (GB) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dakota’s Dude | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | The Sinner Is You | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Spinning Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Tricky Magician | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Double Down Dare | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Just Fly | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ain’t None Lucky | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Raggedy Annie | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Project Whiskey | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Myawaya | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Devils Rendezvous | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gabi’s Tuff | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Farina | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | La Negrita | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Matzo Bella | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lune Lake | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Ardara Belle (FR) | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Overtime Olivia | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shak’s Hidden Gem | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | My First Gal | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Avocado Toast | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tiple (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Nazay | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Shrink | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Alley to Calvary | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Appreciate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tiffanys Freud | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Off the Record | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 4 | Panforte Di Siena | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 5 | Azrael | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Four Ten | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 3 | Corcoran | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bad Dude | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Downside Risk | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Good Governance (GB) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Embellisher | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tiberius Mercurius | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Border Town | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Strong Market | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bail Out | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Break Curfew | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Maiden Beauty | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sharpin | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Slimey | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Takecharge Mirella | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dovey Lovey | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Figure It Out | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Marcela | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Bluegrass Jamboree | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Talk Veuve to Me | 1.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Skamania | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Honor Way | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Special Relativity | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carrera Cat | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Flash | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Violent Point | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Light in the Sky | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Darken a Day | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | American Song | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Single Verse | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Apollo’s Abraxas | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tokyo Bay | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 4 | Strongerthanuknow | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | My Sassy Sarah | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Classical Rose | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Canarsie Angel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Silky Blue | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.