July 14, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Garey Park | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Papillon | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Alpha Boy | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kielbasa | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Suzdal | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Landing Gear | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hide the Evidence | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lively Spell | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky At Justice | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Annie Cat | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honey Hearts | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | I’ve Got Issues | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Good Wishes | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Countess St Michel | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hoosessential | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lapis Storm | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Keeneasabean | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tango City | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Go Yeowomen | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ronan | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | White Birch | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Swiss Dot | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ben’s Little Cupid | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Isadora | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Grace | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Red Jersey | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hat Tip | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lavina | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Feisty Chi Chi | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Luna Fortis | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chrome Attack | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ghaaleb’s Dreams | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Knockyourblockoff | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jeggyjeggy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Steel | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ready’s Mission | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No Boundaries | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mighty Might | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Intrysting | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | J Z’s Last Try | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Match Play | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ferlin Husky | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | I Am too Wild | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Richiesonarampage | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Run Your Race | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Battle N Away | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Country Cool | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Striking Heir | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Back Page | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | V J’s Bet | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Orbelina | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Bizzee Mischief | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pocket of Candy | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | On Probation | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Brittney On Blades | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Neuqua | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flat Meadow | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Holy Legal (BRZ) | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Miss Juilana | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Musical Interest | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Rich Tradition | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Dogmen | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cup Game | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cats Valentine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tio Chuy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | McLance | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bold Attack | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Roul the Ice | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Purrfect Kitten | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Maximus Image | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.