July 13, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | She’s Not Bluffing | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Nosey Josy | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Warm | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Incredible Miss | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Peggy Sue | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | She’s a Lumberjane | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Sister Emily | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magical Justice | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ramblin’ Ma’am | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Win the Shake | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Prisoner’s Dilemma | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mike’s Girl | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winifred J | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Linda’s Ballet | 2.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mz Seb Pat | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Crater Rim | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honorable Profit | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Minit Maus | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vitanza | 10.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Magical Romance | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zip It Jess | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Sanford S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | By Your Side | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Raging Whiskey | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cucina | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tomato Bill | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Memorable | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | High Tide | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hometown Pride | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pharoah Cat | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kickin’ Kirby | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zyramid | 1.60 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Peddlers Pride | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Irked | 6.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vaya Con Dios | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cache | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paper Clip | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Catch a Thrill | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Turf War | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Helen’s Tiger | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Originator | 1.60 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | I’llhandalthecash | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9A | 7 | Noble Freud | 1.60 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stonesintheroad | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sinwaan | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Our Circle of Love | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Enforceable | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cardiac Kid | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Field Pass | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Decorated Invader | 4.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Everything | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Our Country | 6.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cloudbased | 10.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr Jaggers | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Kokokomo | 8.00 | 18.3 | 35-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ghost of the Mambo | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Ox Bridge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Red Zinger | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lutsky | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kazmania | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bozzini | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Special Story | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | New York Hero | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kerry Boy | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Amundson | 4.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Foolish Ghost | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | So Gracious | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Quasar | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | First Wave | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tan and Tight | 3.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Peaceful | 2.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss You Blues | 4.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prosperity | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blahnik | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Diana S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rushing Fall | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sistercharlie (IRE) | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Homerique | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mitchell Road | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Secret Message | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thais (FR) | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Payne | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hersh | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Uber Kirk | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Where Paradise Lay | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ruler of the Nile | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Asesino | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Quick Entry | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Market King | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Morning | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Prognostication | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Battle of Blenheim | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sycamore Lane | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Basha | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Patriot Drive | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coltrane | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Catch a Cab | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shalako | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Derby Champagne | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gray Sky | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Themanbehindtheman | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shareholder Value | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Conqueror | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Halloween Horror | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.