July 12, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Can She Scoot | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Darlin Rosie | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zaphical | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heir Ball | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Valiant Lady | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Je Suis Belle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lu Sea | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Stopshoppingamy | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scarlet Position | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lizz a Bee | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Afooler | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Snake N Shake | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stormy Empire | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ditten Waddy | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Do Not Enter | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amaroq | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Legendary Larry | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | M C Squared | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vbreeze | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magician’s Bags | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Caitlins Road | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | G Road | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Maria’s Moment | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ain’t Dat Sweet | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Sharperthanme | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Glamala | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Buywon Getwon | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lady Furbein | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Romantic Attack | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | House of Cortez | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lero Lero | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Yourdecisionotmine | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Donivan My Boy | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fern | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mummy Troll | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boychild | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Portico | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Amazing Annie | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gwendalyn Sue | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rachelgotstephen | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Serenade | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | April Fifteenth | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Launch Away | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tannah’blu | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sharing a Laugh | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Track Magic | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bordini | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dumbmark | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bajan Rhythm | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Letthebigshot Roll | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Iker | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pale Hose | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kyzan | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Boston Charley | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Impeachableoffense | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Donnels Creek | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alex’s Strike | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Speed Effect | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Suspect | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Imperial Temple | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Suprise Cat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Prince Zar | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gate Crew | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.