July 11, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hollywood Handsome | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blurred Line | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Real Dan | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz No Bluff | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Curlin’s New Moon | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Armament | 3.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Americano | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fed Fever | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Poker Game | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sayyaaf | 1.20 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Declined | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sneakiness | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Vehement | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hurricane Jake | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Point of Humor | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Camouflaged Kisser | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Duress | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cain V and D C | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Up and Onward | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Off the Record | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ahead of Plan | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | The Rock Says | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Potomac | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Walkoff | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Growth Engine | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Verve’s Humor | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shadow Rider | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vincento | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Local Hero | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Zap Daddy | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Somekindofmagician | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gosilently | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Autostrade | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wilderness Gate | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bemma’s Boy | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bootlegger (FR) | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | All Clear | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Discretionary | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Indigo Yankee | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Love Me Tomorrow | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Funfetti | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Impazible Donna | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ghostghostghost | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Helen by Night | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Keypit | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Time Shift | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Q | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rewarded | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Aubrey Tate | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Jewel of Arabia | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Big Bounty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Elenzee | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Analyzethisandthat | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Pipes | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Rockin Jo | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Light the Posse | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Three Outlaws | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bronx Bomber | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9A | 6 | Veterans Beach | 3.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | |
| 7A | 4 | Magical Tale | 3.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin to Be Loved | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fled | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | New York Hero | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Giant Boo Boo | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Poppy’s Destiny | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Morgantown | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Red Zinger | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Wegetsdamunnys | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Classic Lady | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Giant Zinger | 1.40 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bareeqa | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wish Upon | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Purely Lucky | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | War Canoe | 4.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dynamite Kitten | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Elegant Jem | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cartwheel | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Maiden Beauty | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Vip Nation | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Turn and Bern | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Schuylerville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shippy | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kiss the Girl | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Comical | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Integral | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | His Glory | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Fatima | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lula’s Roadrunner | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Buxom Beast | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Aurelia Garland | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Quick Call S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Abyssinian | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Listing | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elektronic | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Call Paul | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Sombeyay | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Fully Loaded | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Neverland Rock (GB) | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gladiator King | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mount Travers | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Releasethethunder | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Dunph | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Claddagh’s Run | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Encore Kitten | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sister Gema | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Going to Temple | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | To a Friend | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Lido Key | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 2 | Bizness Beauty | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Darling of the Spa | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lady Trish’s Dream (GB) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Elite Mom | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 3 | Dottie’s Spirit | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Simply Miss Red | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Countenance | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.