Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 11, 2019

July 11, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hollywood Handsome 4.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Blurred Line 10.00 5.6 10-1
7 7 Real Dan 2.50 5.6 11-1
6 6 Tiz No Bluff 5.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Curlin’s New Moon 8.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Armament 3.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Americano 20.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Fed Fever 12.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Poker Game 20.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sayyaaf 1.20 1.7 3-1
12 9 Declined 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Sneakiness 8.00 4.6 9-1
11 8 Vehement 4.50 4.9 9-1
4 4 Hurricane Jake 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 6 Point of Humor 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 Camouflaged Kisser 30.00 7.3 14-1
8 7 Duress 15.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Cain V and D C 30.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Up and Onward 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Off the Record 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Ahead of Plan 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 The Rock Says 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Potomac 2.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Walkoff 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Growth Engine 2.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Verve’s Humor 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Shadow Rider 15.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Vincento 6.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Local Hero 3.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Zap Daddy 4.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Somekindofmagician 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Gosilently 4.50 5.9 11-1
4 3 Autostrade 8.00 5.9 11-1
6 5 Wilderness Gate 10.00 7.1 13-1
8 7 Bemma’s Boy 12.00 7.5 14-1
10 9 Bootlegger (FR) 6.00 8.2 15-1
9 8 All Clear 20.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Mr. Discretionary 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Indigo Yankee 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Love Me Tomorrow 4.00 2.2 4-1
9 8 Funfetti 3.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Impazible Donna 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Ghostghostghost 5.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Helen by Night 6.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Keypit 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Time Shift 15.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Big Q 12.00 8.6 16-1
10 9 Rewarded 20.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Aubrey Tate 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Jewel of Arabia 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Big Bounty 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Elenzee 5.00 3.1 6-1
11 8 Analyzethisandthat 4.50 4.5 9-1
10 7 Pipes 3.50 5.7 11-1
4 2 Rockin Jo 15.00 5.9 11-1
8 5 Light the Posse 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Three Outlaws 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 3 Bronx Bomber 10.00 7.1 13-1
9A 6 Veterans Beach 3.00 13.7 26-1
7A 4 Magical Tale 3.00 14.3 27-1
2 2 Bustin to Be Loved 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Fled 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 New York Hero 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Giant Boo Boo 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Poppy’s Destiny 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Morgantown 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Red Zinger 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Wegetsdamunnys 6.00 4.9 9-1
11 9 Classic Lady 5.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Giant Zinger 1.40 5.6 10-1
6 6 Bareeqa 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Wish Upon 12.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Purely Lucky 30.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 War Canoe 4.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Dynamite Kitten 15.00 8 15-1
7 7 Elegant Jem 15.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Cartwheel 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Maiden Beauty 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Vip Nation 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Turn and Bern 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Schuylerville S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Shippy 2.00 1.6 3-1
9 8 Kiss the Girl 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Comical 5.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Integral 6.00 4 7-1
3 3 His Glory 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Lady Fatima 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Lula’s Roadrunner 20.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Buxom Beast 15.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Aurelia Garland 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Quick Call S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Abyssinian 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 3 Listing 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Elektronic 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 4 Call Paul 2.50 4.4 8-1
10 7 Sombeyay 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 5 Fully Loaded 20.00 5.9 11-1
9 6 Neverland Rock (GB) 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Gladiator King 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mount Travers 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Releasethethunder 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Dunph 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Claddagh’s Run 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Encore Kitten 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Sister Gema 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Going to Temple 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 To a Friend 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Lido Key 12.00 SCRATCH
6 2 Bizness Beauty 20.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Darling of the Spa 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Lady Trish’s Dream (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Elite Mom 12.00 SCRATCH
12 3 Dottie’s Spirit 10.00 6.9 13-1
2 1 Simply Miss Red 20.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Countenance 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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