July 11, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Silent Fame | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Last Spring | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cee R Bee | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tims Hope | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Benny | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Party On Dude | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Arrowsphere | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Constancia | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Running Vicky | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Macbu | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Biz | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Social Icon | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Voluptuous | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Goddess of Kip | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Spender | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | U Turn the Page | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chosen Facts | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Unexpected Visit | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kara’s Angel | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Tan | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Crow Moon | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Allegiance | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Honest to Goodness | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jackfruit | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Run Tappy | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Half Trick | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Orbert | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lillet | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speed to Victory | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mining for Pearls | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Winning Quality | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rare Action Attack | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Me too Mo | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ozette | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Princess Mandii | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Good Mongolia | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Burning Question (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Antalya | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Bold Cat | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fringe | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Have the Facts | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Little Chick | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Circuit Reboot | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Tak | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Colonel Klink | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Heisfancy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Desani’s Chance | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | One Way Home | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Christmas Cookie | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ravens Reflection | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Northern Fire | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tommytoshort | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peppermint Crunch | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | The Kahn | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rich Tradition | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Tornado Boy | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lovesomuch | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Imperial Express | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | A Giant View | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Enjoy the Journey | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ice Machine | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Off to the Beach | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Westgate | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sertoman | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Captain Carnegie | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.