Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 11, 2019

July 11, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Silent Fame 1.80 1.9 4-1
3 3 Last Spring 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Cee R Bee 15.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Tims Hope 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Lucky Benny 15.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Party On Dude 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Arrowsphere 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Constancia 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Running Vicky 12.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Macbu 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 American Biz 2.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Social Icon 20.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Voluptuous 1.60 2.3 4-1
2 2 Goddess of Kip 8.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Spender 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 2 U Turn the Page 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Chosen Facts 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 3 Unexpected Visit 15.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Kara’s Angel 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bourbon Tan 12.00 3.2 6-1
8 5 Crow Moon 2.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Allegiance 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 Honest to Goodness 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Jackfruit 4.50 SCRATCH
5 4 Run Tappy 10.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Half Trick 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Orbert 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lillet 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Speed to Victory 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 Mining for Pearls 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Winning Quality 5.00 4 8-1
3 3 Rare Action Attack 5.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Me too Mo 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Ozette 20.00 6 11-1
4 4 Princess Mandii 15.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Good Mongolia 4.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Burning Question (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Antalya 2.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Miss Bold Cat 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Fringe 15.00 4 8-1
8 7 Have the Facts 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Little Chick 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 6 Circuit Reboot 20.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Tak 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Colonel Klink 3.50 SCRATCH
8 7 Heisfancy 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 1 Desani’s Chance 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 One Way Home 4.50 4.1 8-1
6 5 Christmas Cookie 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 Ravens Reflection 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 4 Northern Fire 12.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tommytoshort 4.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Peppermint Crunch 3.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 The Kahn 4.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Rich Tradition 6.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Tornado Boy 15.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Lovesomuch 6.00 6.1 12-1
14 14 Imperial Express 12.00 SCRATCH
12 11 A Giant View 20.00 6.4 12-1
10 9 Enjoy the Journey 15.00 6.7 13-1
13 13 Ice Machine 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Off to the Beach 20.00 7.1 13-1
11 10 Westgate 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Sertoman 12.00 8.6 16-1
9 8 Captain Carnegie 30.00 10.2 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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