July 6, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Power Cry | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tak | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ed’s Rocket | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Simsbury | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | P R Radio Star | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Go Oshie Go | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hero Tiger | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Heritage | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Nautical Legacy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Foggy Albion | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Old Fitz | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Don Curlione | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stand With Honor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Roul the Ice | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Westgate | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Bird | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Full Count | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Maria’s Moment | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Token Vow | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ragatagtag | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Superstar Diva | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frosty Friend | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fortressa | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Miss Cartelle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Isaac Murphy H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Jean Elizabeth | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Puntsville | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Joyful Night | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Itsagimme’s Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Brittney On Blades | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Game Time Decision | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Addison Cammack Memorial H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Richiesinthehouse | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Recount | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | What’s Up Dude | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wile E Peyote | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Northern Fire | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bulldog of Bergen | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Night Flower | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Harbor Gold | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Queens Day Victory | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin At Vanessa | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dance Like Katie | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hero of Gold | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Praying for a Win | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ice for That Burn | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Baba Tobi | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Macho Alpha | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Run Your Race | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charge Card | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Offlee Fun | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Changn Fivehundred | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Broad Blue Line | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magician’s Bags | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kinsella | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pleasant Street | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Go Vo | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mongol Bull | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Four Left Feet | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | M C Squared | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jive Daddy | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sunny’s Rainbow | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Richiesonarampage | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Boom Box | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Regal Kitten | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | He’s Dann Good | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pale Hose | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Franklin County | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Boston Charley | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Of Note | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Purely Boy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Cadet Captain | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Half of Manhattan | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Citali | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Giacallure | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | All Call | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Funny Questions | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Golden Dart | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miracle Mountain | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Croce d’Oro | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Consultation | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Big Dinner | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Romeo O Romeo | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.