Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 4, 2019

July 4, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pagliacci 0.60 2.1 4-1
1 1 Like What I See 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Heavy Meddle 15.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Corot 4.50 3.1 6-1
2A 2 Zap Daddy 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Mohican 10.00 4.7 9-1
5A 5 Poker Game 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Crea’s Bklyn Law 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Exult 2.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Power Player 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Malthael 3.50 3.6 7-1
7 6 Bad Boy 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Ownitifyouwantit 5.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Asdaaf 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Dillon Rocks 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Muddy 2.50 2 4-1
1 1 Planet Trailblazer (BRZ) 0.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Too Fast to Pass 12.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Maimo 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Old Upstart 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Untamed Domain 1.60 2.3 4-1
1 1 Bird’s Eye View 3.00 3 6-1
3 2 Greek Alphabet 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 4 Leitone (CHI) 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 3 Lunaire 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Turco Bravo (CHI) 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Memories of Peter 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 2 Dr Post 0.80 1.5 3-1
2 1 Extreme Force 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 5 Another Miracle 5.00 3 6-1
4 3 Green Light Go 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 4 This Ill Defend 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Little Harbour 6.00 SCRATCH
6A 6 Night Code 0.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Blahnik 1.80 3.6 7-1
1 1 Shannon’s Girl 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Ghosting 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Jasminesque 6.00 5 9-1
6 5 G. T. Sonia 12.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Bellamy Knows 8.00 6.3 12-1
9 8 Ask Siri 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 4 Tiz Her Way 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 6 Controllingthegold 30.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Adhafera 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 National Honor 3.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 News Anchor 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 New Jersey John 6.00 4.5 8-1
4 3 Lucky Bet 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Mr. Massena 3.50 5.1 10-1
5 4 Market Bubble 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 El Hermano 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 7 Opt 15.00 6.6 12-1
10 9 Riendo 5.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Playwright 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Manila S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Pole Setter 4.50 2.4 4-1
6 5 Fog of War 4.50 2.6 5-1
8 7 Clint Maroon (GB) 3.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Win Win Win 3.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Pulsate 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 4 Casa Creed 5.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Ian Glass 20.00 6 11-1
9 8 Gentleman Joe 30.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Current 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Peggy Sue 2.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Rose of Dublin 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Here Comes Meg 6.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Vinda Machine 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Crick 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Love and Luck 4.50 5.3 10-1
4 4 Tannuzzo 10.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Dontcallmefrancis 12.00 6.1 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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