June 28, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Match Play | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sacramento Q | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Friends | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oh So Tall | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | French Minded | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Willow Ridge | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ghost Position | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | New Atlas | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Looktheotherway | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Almafuerte | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Daneira | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Running Vicky | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I’ve Got Issues | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Well Maid | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Cowgirl Callie | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hoosessential | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Nobody Move | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Revolt | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rich E Z | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Joey B | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Carnoustie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Tonbo | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Santa Americana | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fort Dixie | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brad’s Wager | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tango City | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hero of the Hour | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | What a Hoot | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kaliningrad | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Old Fort | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Olympic Gold | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Enjoy the Journey | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Watch Me Smok’em | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Canary Islands | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cloud to Ground | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Isabellacannetella | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bizzee Mischief | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thoughtless | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | On Probation | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kim Dandy | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Rum Tum | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Holy Legal (BRZ) | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 6 | Meghan | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Stamp | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Loop the Loop | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Carissa Crismas | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Detour | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gentle Touch | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cloche | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | More Than Gracious | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bird Key | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | White Birch | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | I Love to Race | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Power Song | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wazzup Chuck | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vincitore | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Handsome Honey | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ioya Again | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honest to Goodness | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Tan | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Allegiance | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dollar Blue | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Changi | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Baytown Jimbo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Defender | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ceduna | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | English Ransom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Amaroq | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Curby | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Little Baltar | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Boom Box | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Kyzan | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bajan Rhythm | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dr. Liechty | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Savie | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Greenhorn | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dashing Derek | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.