Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 27, 2019

June 27, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Josie 2.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Honorable Memory 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Weekend Fun 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Lil Miss Hot Mess 5.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Spun Eazy 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Fine One Won 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 She’s All Wolfe 15.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 English Toffee 20.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Changes 4.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Mr. Misunderstood 0.80 2.3 4-1
1 1 Profiteer 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Fact Finding 12.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Soglio 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Third Day 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hawaakom 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mizzen Air 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Color Me Pretty 3.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Big Blue Magic 3.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Myositis Mystique 4.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Babaknowsevrything 5.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Miss Shawhan 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Native Wahoo 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Secret Trick 12.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Slick Silver 3.00 2.5 5-1
13 12 Super Terrific 3.50 3 6-1
10 10 Copper Fiddle 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Kansas City Zip 6.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Written Permission 10.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Replete 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Cuzi’mhappy 12.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Lea Ridge 8.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 K C Against World 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Young Lochinvar 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Lons Shackleford 15.00 8.2 16-1
4 4 Majors Vindication 20.00 9.1 17-1
12 12 Butter Hut 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Venkman 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Shell Fire 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Nice of Me 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Grandezza 2.50 3.7 7-1
8 8 Khairiya 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Demimondaine 4.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Arch Avenue 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Social Circle 8.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Kim K 6.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Agi’s Cait 15.00 6 11-1
3 3 Carina 20.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Jo Marie 8.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Net 10.00 8 15-1
10 10 Fun Paddy 12.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Big Torch Key 4.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Kaziranga 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Bundibunan 8.00 4.7 9-1
13 11 Dabo 5.00 5.2 10-1
11 10 Tracksmith 4.50 5.7 11-1
9 8 Red Island (IRE) 3.50 5.8 11-1
4 4 Alliterative 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Proud as Punch 8.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Thirsty Betrayal 30.00 6.8 13-1
10 9 Gigging 30.00 7.4 14-1
8 7 Originaire (IRE) 12.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Tom’s Last General 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Avigale (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cornstarch 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Alfons Walde (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Carte Blanche 4.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Aquadini 5.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Proschema 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Magic Tapit 5.00 2.4 4-1
4 3 Silver Ride 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Honorable Treasure 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 1 Principe Guilherme 10.00 5.3 10-1
10 8 Tiznoble 8.00 5.9 11-1
11 9 Knights Key 8.00 6.3 12-1
14 12 Mr Ashley 12.00 6.3 12-1
13 11 Cove Blue 6.00 7.3 14-1
3 2 Mr Darcy 10.00 7.7 14-1
8 7 Rubus 8.00 7.8 15-1
5 4 Crosswalk 10.00 7.9 15-1
12 10 Strolling 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 14 Making a Marc 6.00 SCRATCH
1A 15 Boyfriend Material 6.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Hunka Burning Love 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Flat Out Beautiful 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Doby 3.50 4.2 8-1
8 8 Bird Dog 6.00 4.4 8-1
13 13 Ruling Empire 15.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Stock Chain 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Gray Hope 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Moose Got Even 12.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Hypersonic 20.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Paddy O’Dini 15.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Oh Bene 5.00 7 13-1
1 1 Grand Royale 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tizaghera 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Pitman Valley 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Enjoy the Journey 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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