June 22, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tobacco Road | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Sicarii | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Voo Doo Doc | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ludington | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I’m Busy | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brush Country | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charlie’sarchangel | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sandville | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jerusalem | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pioneer Dancer | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shanghai Superfly | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Moment | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Goose Drank Wine | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jacks Fire Balls | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Georgia Deputy | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Harpers First Ride | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Passion Play | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Whoa Nellie | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Istan Council | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Free Cover | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Catherinethegreat | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Into Trouble | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Profound Legacy | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Waving Flags | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 6 | Morning Social | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Oxburger | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Whata Perfect Day | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hellorhighwater | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Cowboys Dream | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Parade Field | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Cha Vez | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Third Edition | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Free Ride Mulhall | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Eight Ain’t Enough | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sportster | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Callmecash | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bail Out | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Candizar | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sandy Lane Kitten | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Split the Wickets | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Big Beautiful Wall | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mad Grace | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Charmin Dixie | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Romani | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Absolute Love | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Murika | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | British Invader (GB) | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cimarron | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Turkmenistan | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grats Road | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stylitude | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Light of the World | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dig Charlie Dig | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Our Stormin Norman | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Into a Hot Spot | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Psychoanalyze | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | All Around | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | His Giant | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coworker | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Singapore Flash | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lady’s Weekend | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | J D’s Girl | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Urban Insight | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Meadow Dance | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sworn Silence | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fiber Optic | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dave’s Baby Girl | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Full Orbit | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Broadway Cat | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Devilite | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | In the Mood | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cosmic Burst | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Red Dane (ITY) | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Divine Queen | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Youngest Daughter | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Boxwood | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Total Control | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clever Serve | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | She’s a Gypsy | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Valentine Wish | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 10 | Rocky Tough | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 18 | 9 | Midnight Tea Time | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Funny Duck | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Machtree | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Kearny County | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 17 | 8 | Own Agenda | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Creative Courage | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 6 | Golden Dragon | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Altito | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 16 | 7 | On Patrol | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dontblamerocket | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Cowboy Culture | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Convict Pike | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Another | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Krewe Chief | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Factor This | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sir Dudley Digges | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Neepawa | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Roxelana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Covfefe | 1.40 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Mia Mischief | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awestruck | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honey Bunny | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Classy Act | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ascot Day | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Astrollinthepark | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Upset Brewing | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Salt Bae | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Annathela | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Double Axel | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Take Charge Gina | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bonnet | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Girlfriend Rocket | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Unsweet Tea | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Risky Mandate | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Proudly Pacific | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dolce Andromeda | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Runway Starlet | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | New Hope Road | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Moneypenny | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Generic Mark | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.