June 21, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mylastfirstkiss | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wasabi Girl | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Green Destiny | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frank’s Rockette | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Emily’s Oasis | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Symphony Hall | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Edgee Angel | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flowers Tewmey | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Restless Rambler | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Data Driven | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charge the Line | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Getoffmyback | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bolita Boyz | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fascilitator | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Union Colonel | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crypto | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Pickens | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shippingport | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Peace Achieved | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Field Pass | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Axiomo | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Belleau Wood | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dream Palace | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Billy Batts | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Tito’s | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bahama Channel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Night Time | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ghostlore | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Silent Malice | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kowalski | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Money for Mischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Marie’s Mandate | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ladyofdragonstone | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Leesburg Lady | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Won Lil Indian | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Rose Larue | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Fahrenheit | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Michigan Miss | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dance the Day Away | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Analyze This Cat | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Cabotage | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Idea | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dusty Miller | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Italian Charm | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Raising the Flag | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | River Echo (GB) | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Summer Revolution | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | U S Marshal | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | McCormick | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hammerin Aamer | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Curlins Vow | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kitten’s Cat | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hay Dakota | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Musical America | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Exemplar | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Zambian | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cape Angel | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Machismo | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Derby Champagne | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Just Be Frank | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Chantmeupbaby | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bondurant | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Gray Sky | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Rocky Tough | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Watch Me Whip | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Freefall | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | General Kitten | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Croatian | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oro de Tejano | 4.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Soul of the Hero | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | American Sea | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | V Tach M. D. | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | New Year’s Luck | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Super Comet | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Where Paradise Lay | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Classy John | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lemniscate | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chase the Ghost | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Carrier Landing | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Wicked Indeed | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Market King | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Soap Bubble | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Breaking News | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spin Lightning | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One for Richie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cave Run | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Clear for Action | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shakes Creek | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Local Hero | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Almoreb | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Valycove | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Love Your Buttons | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | County Court | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sun Lover (GB) | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sambucca | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alittlevodka | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cheytac | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Trevor | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | King of Candy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Navy Armed Guard | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Jailhouse Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Indigo Yankee | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.