June 9, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | C Islandsurprise | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Cleopatra | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tell Your Mama | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Zena Rules | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maid for Mischief | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sure Thing Sheila | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Senor Jobim | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Fu | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Asesino | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Country | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wild About Candy | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Holly Blame | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Bold Paynter | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Seek the Peak | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Military Hop | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aqualityindividual | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Heirloom Kitten | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cowboys Dream | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Willcat | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Sorrell | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Eight Ain’t Enough | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Third Edition | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sail On | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | More Mo for Me | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dos Vinos | 1.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Just a Dream | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lahiri | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Her Kare | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dyna’s Ace | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Grit and Glory | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Portal | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lngtermrelationshp | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dreamzapper | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sassy King | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | County Court | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eskenforit | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 3 | Ry’s the Guy | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Copper King | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 2 | Felix the Fox | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Shared Legacy | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Pool Shark | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Free Ride Mulhall | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | My America | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cha Vez | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Musician | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Zip Your Lip | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Branson | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | El Tizar | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grit and Curiosity | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bobby Axelrod | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vice Versa | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Special Reserve | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | First Things First | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tazon | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Donnels Creek | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Area | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High Regard | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | True Dream | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miz Shelton | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Whispering Speaker | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | First Alternate | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 7 | Frolic More | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Salvator Mundi | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Youvesaiditall | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | My Sixth Sense | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Haunt | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Zorb | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lord Dragon | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Originaire (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Big Torch Key | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Red Island (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Avigale (IRE) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hartel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Weekly Call | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Johny’s Bobby | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Miltontown | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Market King | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Galactica | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cha Mono | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Colonel Pike | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Supreme Venture | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Neil’s Diamond | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cedar Creek | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Arden | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Prophet | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Notacatbutacard | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Inmyfathersimage | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Red Blue and True | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twenty Gauge | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mini Miles | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.