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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 30, 2019

May 30, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Beantown Boys 3.50 1 2-1
2 1 Colour Guard 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 3 Verve’s Humor 4.00 3.7 7-1
8 6 And Seek 4.50 4 8-1
5 4 Mississippi 6.00 4 8-1
3 2 Sargeant Drive 4.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Payday Too SCRATCH
6 6 California Swing SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Speed App 2.00 2 4-1
1A 6 Pow 2.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Moti 1.80 3 6-1
5 5 Loveatturkeyclub 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Front Page 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 2 Daddy’s On Strike 8.00 6 11-1
6 7 Letting Off Steam 15.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gentrified 2.50 1.3 3-1
4 4 Pat Daddy 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 W. B. Smudge 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Ceeky 5.00 4 8-1
8 8 Distorted Ransom 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Tres Equis 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Overcame 6.00 6 11-1
5 5 Containment 12.00 7.7 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Ella Brown 4.00 1.3 3-1
7 6 Anima 15.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Our Petunia 12.00 3.7 7-1
9 8 Leesburg Lady 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 2 Bling Springsteen 3.50 4.3 8-1
5 4 Natures Bounty 20.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 Blue Sky in Dixie 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 1 Katie’s Belle 20.00 6 11-1
11 11 Miss Bodie SCRATCH
1 1 Made to Be SCRATCH
10 10 Lillet SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zeke 30.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Shakes Creek 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 King Valero 30.00 3 6-1
6 6 On Patrol 12.00 3 6-1
4 4 Bemma’s Boy 30.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Love Your Buttons 6.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Almoreb SCRATCH
8 8 Alittlevodka SCRATCH
14 14 Colombard SCRATCH
7 7 Briar Jumper SCRATCH
10 10 Sekondi SCRATCH
9 9 Clear for Action SCRATCH
13 13 McCormick SCRATCH
12 12 County Court SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Club Car 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Blip Says Bye 5.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Unsweet Tea 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 La Chancla 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Soluna 8.00 6 11-1
3 3 Miss Moneypenny 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Mt. Brave 5.00 6 11-1
2 2 Istan Again 6.00 6 11-1
10 10 Complex Analysis 10.00 7.7 14-1
5 5 Centerfold Angel 20.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Line Judge 3.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Mr Ashley 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Transatlantic Kiss 10.00 3 6-1
5 5 Strolling 10.00 4 8-1
4 4 Principe Guilherme 2.50 4 8-1
9 9 Ike 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Home Base 10.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Making a Marc SCRATCH
8 8 Tiz Mischief SCRATCH
1 1 Texas Wedge SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Freudian Finish 10.00 2 4-1
3 3 Speed to Victory 4.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Holiday Time 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Emrata 12.00 4 8-1
11 11 Double Axel 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Palace Princess 20.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Live It Up 50.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Aspens Little Zip 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Lady Worthington SCRATCH
4 4 Cloche SCRATCH
9 9 Kiss More SCRATCH
7 7 Stylishly SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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