May 25, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | It Was Considered | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Berning Repent | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Social Circle | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bronze Charm | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Veiled Vixen | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Data Damsel | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Righteous Ruby | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Griff | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chip Van Winkle | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Meanbone | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ship Stalker | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Colonel Pike | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hugh B. | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | All Hansens Ondeck | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zaevion | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Swamp Ruler | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Golden Tiger | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | I’m Busy | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Box of Chocolates | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smile Bryan | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carrier Landing | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tom’s Last General | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ludington | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Keertana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Over Thinking | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Peru (GB) | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gaining (GB) | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gentle Ruler | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Room to Finish | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lacustre (GB) | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Miltontown | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Zing Zang | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Our Alibi | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Believeinholidays | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Treasure Trove | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Just Like Richie | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Coworker | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sabrena’s Bling | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cosmic Hallelujah | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Watch Me Whip | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Praetorian | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | British Humor | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Jimmy Joe | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | The Moment Is Now | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady’s Weekend | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Eyes On | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rage Away | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lemon Again | SCRATCH | |||
| 5 | 5 | Senor Jobim | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Green Fleet | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Life Mission | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Trinity (FR) | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Oxburger | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | World Tax War (IRE) | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kid Lemuel | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stage Ready | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bakers Bay | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Intoxicating | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Indian Counselor | SCRATCH | |||
| 14 | 14 | Cha Vez | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Cowboys Dream | SCRATCH | |||
| 1 | 1 | Joe Benjamin | SCRATCH | |||
| 13 | 13 | Unite the Masses | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Istan Council | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Catherinethegreat | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Angel Alessandra | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Into Trouble | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Peruvian Appeal | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mae Never No (IRE) | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Athens Queen | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shanghai Rain | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Best Kept Secret | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rockin Ready | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Orageuse | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bridaled Temper | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | She’sonthewarpath | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maid To Remember (GB) | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vanilla Cat | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Elle’s Town | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cash Out | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fiber Optic | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Smile Awhile | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Africa (FR) | SCRATCH | |||
| 13 | 13 | Warrior’s Way | SCRATCH | |||
| 15 | 15 | What a Fox | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Homefieldadvantage | SCRATCH | |||
| 11 | 11 | Julia’s Ready | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Winning Colors S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Let It Ride Mom | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Astrollinthepark | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Divine Queen | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Salt Bae | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Upset Brewing | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Awestruck | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Classy Act | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Honey Bunny | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Annathela | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | She’s a Gypsy | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Quick Quick Quick | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Suzette | 50.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Ria Munk | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sugar Love | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Temperit | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Sally’s Curlin | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Web o’ Gold | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Chocolate Swirl | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Daddymademedoit | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Folk Legend | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Super Tap | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Demimondaine | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Lady Hester | SCRATCH | |||
| 1 | 1 | Scilly Isles | SCRATCH | |||
| 14 | 14 | Lemon Chill | SCRATCH | |||
| 4 | 4 | The Mallard Queen | SCRATCH | |||
| 15 | 15 | Small Moment | SCRATCH | |||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.