May 24, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Time and Chance | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sworn Silence | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Game Time Decision | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Foxy Mischief | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Parking Ticket | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucy’s Town | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stunning Munnings | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | L’Americana (GB) | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Peace Achieved | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toma Todo | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elusive d’Oro | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Apple Empire | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Billy Batts | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Nano | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jamming Cameron | SCRATCH | |||
| 9 | 9 | Dream Palace | SCRATCH | |||
| 6 | 6 | Colossal Storm | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | In the Mood | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cosmic Burst | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Auspicious Babe | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Skeptic | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Dane (ITY) | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mayas Queen Neetee | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sydney Freeman | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Special Relativity | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sassy King | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Solomonic | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Replete | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Vinestone | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bird Dog | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Beam | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Way too Wicked | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Zydeco | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ice Machine | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Doby | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kentucky Dan | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Caliente Candy | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Karma | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lovely Flash | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Enlisting | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Warrior Empress | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tolly Ho | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Alizee | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maggie Pie | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ragatagtag | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Siding Spring | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Go Navy Go | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Murad Khan (FR) | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dontblamerocket | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Space Mountain | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Derby Champagne | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gettysburg | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Strong Yen | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chantmeupbaby | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Galton | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Zambian | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Explorer | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Paddock Pick | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chase the Ghost | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Asesino | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Franknjymme | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bebop Shoes | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jack Van Berg | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nifty | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moonster | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Youvesaiditall | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | R One | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Acosta | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Combination | SCRATCH | |||
| 13 | 13 | Rubus | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | December Seven | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Colonelsdarktemper | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hawaakom | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Casino Star | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Casses Story | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rocking the Boat | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Boy Jack | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Rocky Tough | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ballard High | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kukulkan (MEX) | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Master Distiller | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shanghai Superfly | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tell Your Daddy | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tweezer (IRE) | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | All in Stew Oui | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Dream | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Snap Hook | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Who’syourfavorite | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candizar | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Right the Wrong | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Split the Wickets | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Cowboys Dream | SCRATCH | |||
| 11 | 11 | Merlin’s Song | SCRATCH | |||
| 14 | 14 | Unite the Masses | SCRATCH | |||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.