May 23, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Grace’s Drama | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sugar Cube | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Blue Magic | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Perfect Paradise | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stina | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Harbor Jedi | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lurey An | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucy’s Revenge | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Strut the Ring | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Got Even | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kahramani | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Frost Or Frippery | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flashy Jewel | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Due to His Charm | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tesorina | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eloquent Lady | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Swanage | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mom’s Pass | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Well Spent | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | English Toffee | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quiet Dawn | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spartanka | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Delaware | SCRATCH | |||
| 8 | 8 | Candy’s Dream | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 9 | We Did | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Greeleys Charm | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cedar Creek | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 12 | Bourne in Nixa | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mark My Way | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Springmeier | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Solar Maximus | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Tito Tonight | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flat Out Fast | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Arch You Ready | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Sharm | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Red Blue and True | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Portal | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Revolution | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rich Daddy | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Raising the Flag | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hunka Burning Love | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | He’s Bankable | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cowboy Rhythm | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Runningfromthefeds | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | U. S. Currency | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sophie Antoinette | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gottaflathaveher | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flume | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blunt Force | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brassy and Sassy | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Holly Molly Dolly | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Snattered | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | More Moet Pleez | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Osprey Court | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Daddy’s Melody | SCRATCH | |||
| 14 | 14 | Flashy Biz | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Lawnmower | SCRATCH | |||
| 11 | 11 | Heaven Escape | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Whoa Nellie | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | East Moon | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Summer Storm | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Urban Insight | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fancy Fox | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Devilite | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Gayle | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lifefullofreinbows | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Graceful Princess | SCRATCH | |||
| 7 | 7 | Frond | SCRATCH | |||
| 10 | 10 | Flat Awesome Jenny | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Graysshootingstar | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lontani | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Agent Bond | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Loveatturkeyclub | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clipboard Money | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Newcomer | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Campaign Spy | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grand Royale | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tizaghera | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Released | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Dustman | SCRATCH | |||
| 6 | 6 | Optimal | SCRATCH | |||
| 8 | 8 | Cairo Campaign | SCRATCH | |||
| 13 | 13 | Midland | SCRATCH | |||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.