May 18, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Arrowsphere | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Don’teatmycookies | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gianna’s Gift | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Triple Kapalua | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Boots | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Molly’s Game | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Atruevision | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Richard’s Boy | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sir Navigator | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sharp Art | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bolita Boyz | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Data Driven | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Midwest Justice | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No Funny Biz | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shezappealing | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Sweet Diane | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Good Creation | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Saracosa | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Goodbye Earl | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Orbit | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ready Orb Not | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13A | 13 | Pow | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Impossible Mission | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | The Kid in Syd | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Spect No Mercy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 6 | Red Rover | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Mo | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sarcillo | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Grandgran | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Run This Town | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Alex’s Heights | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Lucky Leo | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Falls Road | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Happy Go Lucky | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ike Walker | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | River Echo (GB) | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sightforsoreeyes | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Icatiro | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Italian Charm | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Vaporman | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Malibu Wood | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Allaboutmike | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Talbeya | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Jo Marie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Broadway Cat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Julia’s Ready | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Comic Kitten | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mission From Elle | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Delta’s Kingdom | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Maid in the Mist | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Delcapem | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dalika (GER) | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gamblin Train | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diva Day | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tootsie | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Channel Princess | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | One for Richie | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Game Day Decision | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Terrific | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Spirogyra | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Shark | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Greeley Can Win | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | K C Against World | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jacks Fire Balls | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Go Get That | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Paddy O’Dini | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frequent Traveler | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Weiland | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | J Boys Echo | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Country | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jacktastic | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Undercover Lover | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | You’re Killin Me | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Long Blade | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sambucca | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Trevor | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Louisville H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Soglio | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz a Slam | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nessy | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shahroze (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Strike the Flag | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Artillery | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Iconic | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Local Hero | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tactical Pursuit (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Indigo Yankee | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Commandeering | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dreamzapper | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bemma’s Boy | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moscow Minister | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ghost Story | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Palace Princess | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tizahra | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Actress On Board | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Uriah’s Legacy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Sally’s Curlin | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Temperit | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Artistic | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Platinum Paynter | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bonnet | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Call to Victory | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Trick of the Tail | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Golden Loch | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Tynagh Spirit | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Woodfin | 20.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Proudly Pacific | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Choate Bridge | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rodhwaan | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.