May 17, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sohni | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Almafuerte | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Mizzen Air | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Alittlecomplicated | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Myositis Mystique | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Native Wahoo | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Trust Me Now | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Try Try Again | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Clear Destination | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hop Kat | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tapalist | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Freedomfi | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | El Cochito | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Union Colonel | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bodecream | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rocky Roma | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Shanghaied Roo | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Potential Danger | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Drunken Fridays | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Mission | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rollin Smoke | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Summerduck | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sparkys Surprise | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Utmost Intensity | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stayonthegrind | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Arrival | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | County Court | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ceduna | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Botswana | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Counter Offer | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bluegrass Parkway | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Apreciado | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | He’s No Lemon | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Victor Lounge (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ted W | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chief Know It All | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlins Vow | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Tickle | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pear Lemonade | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Taruca | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kingsville | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dark Arden | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rock n’ Candy | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Candy Carlos | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Brush Country | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wild About Candy | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | D Squared | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | All Around | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mine My Time | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Psychoanalyze | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ludington | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mug Shot Man | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Regal Look | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Sightforsoreeyes | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mono | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Conquest Windycity | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fifth Title | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Charge the Line | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Unbridled Outlaw | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Always a Suspect | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Galactica | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Conqueror | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parade Blue | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | River Cactus | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tough Stuff | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Highland Lass | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Foxy Mischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Pastime | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Riverside Walk (GB) | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dance Rhythms | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | May Lily | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Coexistence | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | V J’s Bet | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Closer Still (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Calamity Jane | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starlight Express | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Beach House | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ruby Andthe Cowboy | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Baladera | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Singsong Bird | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Quicktrickmunny | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Holdonaminit | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Promised Fame | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spun Line | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rhoda’s Jewell | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Passion’s Image | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Circle the Sun | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Two Sixtyone | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.