May 17, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Get None | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Jules | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hey Hey | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Drama Run | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Daneira | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky At Justice | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Constancia | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Point Streak | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Superstar Diva | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ain’t Dat Sweet | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | American Biz | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Templesis | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fortressa | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Blushing Bella | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Shezahotmama | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Looktheotherway | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prairie Chick | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Valiant Lady | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Her Wild Lifestyle | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nook | 20.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Launch Away | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | J P’s Gia | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Galton | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Don’task Don’ttell | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Moon Over Montana | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bold Prophet | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cammack | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Reride | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Chief Oakie Dokie | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Skycraft | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Applique | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Embarrassing | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Daddy’s Boo | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fizzy Friday (GB) | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oh So Terrible | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strollin the Bayou | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mo’s M V P | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Drinks On Me | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fonda Romana | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ohio Player | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Baba Tobi | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Run Your Race | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Battle N Away | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prairie Chief | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prince Arlo | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Charge Card | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Changn Fivehundred | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oh So Tall | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Vincitore | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Run Tappy | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ioya Again | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Power Song | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fashion Decree | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | You Split Tens | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Charlie’sarchangel | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Honest to Goodness | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fort Ramsey | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dollar Blue | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lemon Blitz | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Moonlight Mischief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Storminside | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Suspenders | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | In the Chamber | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | McHenry | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Antrim’s Giant | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Golden Gift | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Funny Questions | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Candy My Boy | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Sea Rover | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Big Dinner | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Papa Caliente | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Little Ike | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Little Baltar | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ferlin Husky | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Curby | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flyingbyu | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vapor Viper | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Savie | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Greenhorn | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smokey Row Mac | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.