May 12, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Top Mention | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dantu | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Albany Fleet | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Candy | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trenton Bridge | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Veritas | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Turnagain | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mississippi | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beantown Boys | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rubus | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alkhaatam | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Colour Guard | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zing Zang | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thirsty Betrayal | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Haynesfest | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bella Bella | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Tell Your Mama | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Arabella Bella | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Indian Paint | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Love On Tides | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whole Scoop | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trivial | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kitten’s Slew | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Rollin Smoke | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Day Dreamer | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zeke | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin At Blessing | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Satellite | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bacoli | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Two Stepping Groom | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vicksburg | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fighting for Grace | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Calling | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Encinitas | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kansas City Zip | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Half Shot | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Michael T | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Benny | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Penalty Shot | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ragman Jazz | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Tantalizing | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Alex of Ice | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forecastle | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Wings Up | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Love Point | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Please Sit Down | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gigging | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Faraway Kitten | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Sicarii | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Logical Myth | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Knight’s Cross | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Storm the Bastille (FR) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ry’s the Guy | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zapper Van Winkle | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dominant Force | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Twelfth Labour | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Keepin It Classy | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Picasso | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pure Speculation | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pirate’s Punch | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scars Are Cool | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Eight Ain’t Enough | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Coach Rocks | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rahway | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dancing Belle | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | True Dream | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Broome | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miz Shelton | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | First Alternate | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Diamondcoat | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Latent Revenge | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Richard’s Boy | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Cat | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Totally Boss | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Fortitude | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Floroplus | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dubby Dubbie | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Drena’s Star | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | One More Dream | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Flatout Winner | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Where Paradise Lay | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Island Song | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Not Very Gentle | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Queen’s Mason | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Oxxon | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Perlman | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rahfee Town | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Jazz Music | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Suspect | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.