May 12, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Saturdays Hangover | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Mr Haney | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hart Hills Road | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Suzdal | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Temple Zip | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Prudent Hero | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Trumpified | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pocket of Candy | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thoughtless | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Mertie | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Heavenly Hill | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Royal’s Position | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hint of Mint | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Featherstone | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Good Mongolia | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chainmail | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prado’s Encore | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | My Jilly | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Samis Car | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shes Just Capital | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jimmy D | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cause to Action | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Landing Gear | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stealthy Traveler | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spectacular Act | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Forgot to Forget | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Papillon | 20.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pistol Box | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Angry Bull | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hero of Fire | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mind Trappe | 2.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Silent Fame | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Greeleys Ice | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Last Spring | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Intrysting | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tims Hope | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Itching for Attack | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Benny | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Put Position | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lion Love | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rake It Up | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Regal Serenade | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Risky Risky Risky | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Galilee | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Logi | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Run Your Race | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Colonel Klink | 2.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Z U Soon | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Demand Ransom | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | One Way Home | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Little Mighty Man | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Our Thomas | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shakurr | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Omar Attack | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Swither’s Shortcut | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ravens Reflection | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Of Note | 2.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Northern Alliance | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spender | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wayaway | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Edisto Island | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Goddess of Kip | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Have the Facts | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Real de Jalpa | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.