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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 10, 2019

May 10, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7A 7 Viva Forever 2.00 SCRATCH
6A 6 Indian Paint 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Princess Warrior 1.40 1.4 3-1
5 5 Bonnie Arch 4.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Munchkin Money 1.60 1.7 3-1
3 3 Na Pali Spirit 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 She’s Pretty Lucky 6.00 2.9 6-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Shanghai Superfly 2.50 1.3 3-1
8 8 Hooray for Harvey 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Praetorian 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Moti 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Goose Drank Wine 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Change Direction 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Super Silver 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Kinchman 20.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Have No Fear 3.50 2 4-1
1 1 Miss Fahrenheit 4.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Maid of Iron 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Dulce Puella 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Analyze This Cat 5.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Hassle 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Dance the Day Away 5.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Classy Justice 20.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Ice for That Burn 15.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Americangypsyrose 20.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ginny B 3.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Tula 2.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Folly 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Bronco Sally 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Sheza Handfull 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 C C My Sis 10.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 El Bonito 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Jerrid 3.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Solar Maximus 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Star Dog 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Snickerboxer 8.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Garey Park 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Ogee’s Ekati 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Sabbatarian 20.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Buster Brown Boy 10.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lighthouse Point 4.00 2 4-1
1 1 V Tach M. D. 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Say It Ain’t So 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Golden Challenge 4.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Rage Away 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Felipe 15.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Sergeant McNerney 4.50 3.1 6-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Match Play 10.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Lewys Vaporizer 2.50 1.3 3-1
7 6 Turner Time 3.00 2 4-1
8 7 Brerry 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 2 Anechoic 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 4 Cedar Creek 15.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Neil’s Diamond 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Stay Home 15.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Believeinholidays 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Croatian 15.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Uber Kirk 2.50 1.7 3-1
10 8 Holly Blame 10.00 2.6 5-1
8 7 Lngtermrelationshp 15.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Saintly Samurai 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Gray Nile 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Laser Loop 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 4 Ghost Story 10.00 3 6-1
2 2 Traveling 20.00 4 7-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Honus 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Loopallu 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Vogt 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 4 Dom Carlos (IRE) 3.50 2.1 4-1
9 7 Just Might 6.00 2.2 4-1
10 8 Cohete Rojo 8.00 2.5 5-1
11 9 Ace Destroyer 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Gins and Tins 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Quick Entry 15.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Mr. Edgar 20.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Westwood Proud 20.00 4.3 8-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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