May 3, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Firewater Jake | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | A Man Called Boady | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Crupi’s Pizza Dom | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Tom’s Last General | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Handsome Honey | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Luck of the Draw | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Off Sixes | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Carte Blanche | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Coworker | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Gigging | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Annathela | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Alter Moon | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Awestruck | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Upset Brewing | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Magical | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sultry | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Day by Day | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady Kate | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Irish Mischief | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Angel Alessandra | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ultimate Mo | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Golden Curl | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Weabie | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blame the Frog | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mo Gayle | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shacklette | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Parade Field | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Phantom Currency | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Value Engineering | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Silverzar | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Valdolobo (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | World Tax War (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Life Mission | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Blankenbaker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cowboys Dream | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | I Can Do Anything | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 19 | 10 | Napoleon’s Empire | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Fireball Jon | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Haunt | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Atthepearlygates | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 17 | 9 | Miracle Hill | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 8 | Stock Chain | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Split the Wickets | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lookin High | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Heirloom Kitten | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Derby City Gaming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Mother Mother | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Queen of Beas | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Break Even | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Take Charge Angel | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Del Mar May | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lyrical Lady | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bell’s the One | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Proud Emma | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bizwhacks | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Edgewood S. Presented By Forcht Bank
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Newspaperofrecord (IRE) | 0.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cambier Parc | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Winter Sunset | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Concrete Rose | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fortunate Girl | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Destiny Over Fate | 30.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | New Roo | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Alysheba S. Presented By Sentient Jet
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Prime Attraction | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hawaakom | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Multiplier | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | McKinzie | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Seeking the Soul | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tom’s d’Etat | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bourbon Resolution | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Instilled Regard | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Silver Dust | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Copper Bullet | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Casino Star | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – La Troienne S. Presented By Inside Access From Chase
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Golden Award | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Secret Spice | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Divine Miss Grey | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mopotism | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Teresa Z | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s a Julie | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chocolate Martini | 15.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Viva Forever | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awe Emma | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 16 | Funny Duck | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cove Blue | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Rugbyman | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 13 | Soul Streit | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Solid Wager | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Knights Key | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mojo Man | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Musical America | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cummings | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gray Sky | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Strolling | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Home Base | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Fuel the Bern | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tiz Mischief | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Transatlantic Kiss | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Massmutual
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bound for Nowhere | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Crow | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | World of Trouble | 1.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Undrafted | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Will Call | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Jazzy Times | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Chaos Theory | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Angaston | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Smart Remark | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Longines Kentucky Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Dunbar Road | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Point of Honor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bellafina | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jaywalk | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Restless Rider | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Serengeti Empress | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Champagne Anyone | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Motion Emotion | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flor de La Mar | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jeltrin | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Street Band | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Out for a Spin | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chocolate Kisses | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Apple | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Positive Spirit | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Liora | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | High Regard | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Free Cover | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cosmic Code | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Enlisting | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Blue Eyed Girl | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Cloud Charmer | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Warrior Empress | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Equifox | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fun Paddy | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Goodbye Earl | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Ella | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tryon Summer | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Barracuda | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Leesburg Lady | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shilah Baby | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vomba | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | New Rules | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Aymara | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crazy Sexy Munny | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hallawallah | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Club Car | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Indomitable Spirit | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Luckycall | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chocolate Swirl | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lady Stella | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.