May 3, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Goddess of Kip | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Voluptuous | 1.40 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kara’s Angel | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sperling | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spender | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Birdseye Baby | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Molager | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Liberal Lunacy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | City Position | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Spider | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Broad Blue Line | 30.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hero Tiger | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Our Thomas | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shezahotmama | 1.60 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moreta | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Her Wild Lifestyle | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rejoice an Be Glad | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Away She Glows | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chosen Facts | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Romancin N Dancin | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sharp Witted | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Examiner | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Intonation | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Spectacular Road | 10.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Pablo Del Monte | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Ravens Reflection | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Gray Mensch | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Go Oshie Go | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Readyaimfire | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Drama Star | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bold Friends | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Party On Dude | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | High Hero | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Toccetive Jac | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Marvelous Sky | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Red Prince | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sunny’s Rainbow | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Citali | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sgt. Green | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cornfed | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Greenhorn | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Battle N Away | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Serious Talk | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | The Dogmen | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Hero | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Watch Out Justin | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mighty Might | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gildologist | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Borodino | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Musket Hunter | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | McHenry | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Danny B | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Baroque | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dabo | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Remembermis | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zanforce | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Pair | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jeff the Lion | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Next Monday | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rich Tradition | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | English Ransom | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | What a Hoot | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Jimmy At Last | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mr. Sarcastic | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cup Game | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Peppermint Crunch | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jackfruit | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Off to the Beach | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Betwithbothhands | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Crossfire | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.