April 30, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sworn Silence | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Honey Bunny | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Femme Royale | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Color Me Pretty | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Courtmewithcarats | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | So Honest | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Parking Ticket | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Melrose Inn | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Just Grace | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Miss Perfecta | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Laser Ladee | 3.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Noire | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Full Steam | 20.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Indicating | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | In the Moment | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Quite a Secret | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Gisel | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Marriage | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Veiled Vixen | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Duches of Grace | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bellazano | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Girl On a Mission | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Toothpic | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Freakin Joe | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She Love Me | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | El Venue | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jimmy Joe | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | True to Dixie | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Summerduck | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rio Bueno | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gold Credit | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fighting Mad | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jennemily | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shackleford County | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Celia’s Song | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lady of Luxury | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Road Tiger | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Bella Bella | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Even Beat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Arch Avenue | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mad Grace | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dial Me | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cubs Win | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Charmin Dixie | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Infuse | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Wynter Rose | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Domonette | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bella Belle | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Move | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ellens Birthday | 30.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Champions Day Marathon Overnight S. Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lookin for Eight | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sonneteer | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Biblical | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pinson | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Krewe Chief | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Artillery | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Arabella Bella | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 11 | Kalalou | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 7 | Kallio | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Mighty Scarlett | 1.20 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Ruffina | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Holly Go Lightly | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 6 | Coco Channel | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lounge Act | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2B | 9 | Smart Shot | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Saba (FR) | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Oh My | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hashtag Speed | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bird Dog | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Again | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Musical Man | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Leo | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sertoman | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wellfield | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Byron Bay | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Judge Parker | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wicked Max | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Happy Go Lucky | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.