April 20, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Royal Edition | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lovesomuch | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Way too Wicked | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Private Boone | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ice Machine | 15.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Its Yes | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Postimpressionist | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pastorelli | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Five Star Factor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | My Jilly | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tolly Ho | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Romani | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Channing Road | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morgan’s David | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Genuwine | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Giro Kate | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Altered Dream | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Dulce Puella | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Captain Livi | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweetest Appeal | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Have No Fear | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uriah’s Legacy | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Monaco Princess | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hassle | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nice N Cosi | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Michigan Miss | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dynamite Daughters | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sniper Kitten | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Renaisance Frolic | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shahroze (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | |||||
| 2 | 2 | Honovi | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nessy | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | The Girl Factor | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Flash n’ Dance | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bronze Charm | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tap That Cat | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Midnight Affair | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Khairiya | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Carina | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hoptown Honey | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | 3-1 | ||||
| 1 | 1 | Sergio | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lethal Levy | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hollywood Strike | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fort Ramsey | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sensational Sam | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lemon Blitz | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moscow Minister | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Obtained | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tobias | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mominou | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1.6 | 3-1 | ||||
| 3 | 3 | Riverside Walk (GB) | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Closer Still (IRE) | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pastime | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oh So Terrible | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Really Proud | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flame Mingo | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Strong Will | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Dixie Highway | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Jerrys Pridenjoy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ace Destroyer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Distant Shore | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Quick Entry | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Dalliance | 50.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | American Mandate | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Soap Bubble | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | The Big S | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Bump Bailey | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Stage Left | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cohete Rojo | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Spin Lightning | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Dixiana Elkhorn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Soglio | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Zulu Alpha | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bigger Picture | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz a Slam | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hunter O’Riley | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Canessar (FR) | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Leitone (CHI) | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Red Knight | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Final Copy | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4 | 3-1 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | Fortune’s Fool | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Highest Honors | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fox On the Run | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Market | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Where Paradise Lay | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Into Morocco | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Phantom Currency | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Winning Number | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Marsac | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.