April 19, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Turner Time | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Brerry | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swamp Ruler | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Just Be Frank | 30.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Improviser | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vedelago (IRE) | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frogman Mel | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | City Gold | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rooney | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Cap de Creus | 1.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Pretty At War | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gorgeous in Rags | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Temperit | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lady Hester | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sally’s Curlin | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Daring | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Actress On Board | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kimberly Frances | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Into the South | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Charlotte | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bingwa | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vinca | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Lucy | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Into Mystic | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Sweetest Appeal | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Captain Livi | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Dynamite Daughters | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Have No Fear | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Naughty Factor | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Out Till Dawn | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Don’t Tell Lydia | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lorette | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Northern Heart | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | C C My Sis | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rhoda’s Jewell | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Orleans | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blank Canvas | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gold Zephyr | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Spun Line | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tryingtolookpretty | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Club Car | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Hoppa | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sinwaan | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pastoral | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rumandice | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jasminum | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Better Biz | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | She’s Hot Today | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Old and Costly | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | What’sontheagenda | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malraux | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Totally Boss | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Johnny Obvious | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Blackout (FR) | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fast Boat | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lawton | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Keros | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dragon Drew | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tommytom | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | El Tormenta | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Guarana | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Moneypenny | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Folk Legend | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | More | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz What It Tiz | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Boca Bloom | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Altar of Speed | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Templuna | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Private Message | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Twelve Monarchs | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Coachwhip | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cheeky Cherub | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sassy Little Lila | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Munchkin Money | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Strawberry Tequila | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Limari | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | She’s All Skeet | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ladies Night | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Amandine (GB) | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Jehozacat | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss O’Hara | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Lunar Garden | 12.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Youngest Daughter | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Zonza (FR) | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | English Dancer | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Missap | 50.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Hilliard Lyons-baird Doubledogdare S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | La Force (GER) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Eqho | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jala Jala (MEX) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Electric Forest | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Promise of Spring | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Moonlit Garden | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Golden Award | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Go Google Yourself | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Scattered Strikes | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Galindo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Joe Benjamin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Methodical | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Play the Kid | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Last Zip | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Job Security | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | The Rock Says | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Red Sorrell | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vineyard Sound | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stage Ready | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nepal Up | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lord Wimborne (IRE) | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cannonstone | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lookin High | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.