April 17, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sworn Silence | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Trusty Roll | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honey Bunny | 0.80 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Offlee Silkie | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shared Silence | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Courtmewithcarats | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tenpins Tempo | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Picasso Moon | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Katie the Cutie | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Native Wonder | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Eyerish Inspired | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nymue’s Treasure | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Secret Trick | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | She’s Alotta Woman | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Letsstaypositive | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 3 | Miss Understanding | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 7 | Creative Credit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Chili Petin | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Biddy Duke | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Nite Brite | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Annabelle’s Babe | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kitty’s Promise | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Baytown Babe | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | My Good Girl | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Twisted Emotions | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | La Femme Royale | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Rockin Ready | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coexistence | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Focused | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Orb | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fancy Fox | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tap Tap Taparoo | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Taken Back | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Twila Mae | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Baytown Vi Vi | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | La Rosa Drive | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Nayibeth | 1.40 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Owlette | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | My Doughnut | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Diamonds Are A | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Allaboutaprincess | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Polly Tiz | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kertara | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Alexa G | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | A Wicked Wildcat | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Lord Wimborne (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Play the Kid | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Cannonstone | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Nepal Up | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Rochambeau | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trade Deadline | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kid Lemuel | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Torch Key | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Calling | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Higher Authority | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Avigale (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Atthepearlygates | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bakers Bay | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tantalizing | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Spiritus Invictus | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Chief of Joy | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stone Hands | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Iconic | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | McCormick | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Go Navy Go | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiznoble | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dragon Bay | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Action Everyday | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Camp Creek | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Krewe Chief | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Neepawa | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zumurudee | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Strike the Flag | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Local Hero | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Take That for Data | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sarrasin (GB) | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Royal Artillery | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ekhtibaar | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gettysburg | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mottaret | 50.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.