April 13, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Puppy On a String | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lurey An | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | |||||
| 4 | 4 | Sun Dress | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Don’t Stop Maria | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucy’s Town | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Starlight Express | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Showed Up Late | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Green Fleet | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1.6 | 3-1 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | Thetrashmanscoming | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Felix the Fox | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Mesa | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cornstarch | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Parade Field | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Callmecash | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Master Distiller | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.5 | 3-1 | |||||
| 1 | 1 | North Point | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Snap Hook | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Life Mission | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | I Can Do Anything | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | My Dream | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ekaterinoslav | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Makeamericagreat | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bar Harbor | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | J W Ruckus | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Talk Pretty | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pear Lemonade | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Got Gold | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.5 | 3-1 | |||||
| 2 | 2 | Beantown Boys | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | U S Marshal | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ike Walker | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Italian Charm | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Conqueror | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | True West | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flash Attack | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nileator | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Abounding Joy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Gal | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Coach Rocks | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Barrier Island | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Broome | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Gio Game | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Harbor Lights | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Miz Shelton | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hidatsa Park | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Roussalka | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rahway | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miss Altamira | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Lessons From Avery | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Foxtail | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Enchanting Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | In a Flury | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Malakeh (GB) | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Celia’s Song | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Desert Isle | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orageuse | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Innocent | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flat Meadow | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cover Model | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Homefieldadvantage | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fiber Optic | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lucky Move | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Ben Ali S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Krewe Chief | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Flameaway | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1.4 | 3-1 | |||||
| 6 | 5 | Solomini | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Third Day | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hence | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Whistle | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bonus Points | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bourbon Resolution | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Noble Commander | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Nun the Less | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | First Mondays | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Giant’s Causeway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mrs. Ramona G. | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | A Little Bit Me | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Factorofwon | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Morticia | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Surrender Now | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Student Body | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seeknthegiantpearl | 50.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Luvin Bullies | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | La Dame Blanche | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Excessivespending | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Straitouttapopcorn | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Stonestreet Lexington S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Anothertwistafate | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sueno | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Harvey Wallbanger | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hawaiian Noises | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shang | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Knicks Go | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Zenden | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Owendale | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chase the Ghost | 30.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Roiland | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Coolmore Jenny Wiley S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rushing Fall | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1.6 | 3-1 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | Rymska (FR) | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Warrior | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Phantom Opening | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bellavais | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Goodyearforroses (IRE) | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Onthemoonagain (FR) | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Got Stormy | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Winning Number | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Big Max | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Perlman | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Commanding Chief | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Unshaken | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miltontown | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Keep a Eye On Mike | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Flame Zapper | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Newcomer | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wrath | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kulik Bear | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sunday Scaries | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hometown Salute | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12A | 11 | Slick It Up | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dinar | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.