April 12, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | No Hayne No Gayne | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Out of Orbit | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Free Kitty | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pink Twist | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fancy That | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bad Sueno | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mandatory Payout | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Incidentally | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mental Model | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Creative Style | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mucho Lucky | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | State of Mine | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Driven to Compete | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 8 | Exulting | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Roaming Union | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lemonist | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1.4 | 3-1 | |||||
| 4A | 3 | Greek Alphabet | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ninety One Assault | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harlan’s Harmony | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Prioritize | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Tammany Giant | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Suremoney | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Preternatural | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Well in Tune | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Prince Halo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | High Command | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Givetheman a Cigar | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Coach Villa | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Valmont | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sounds Good | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Magnesite | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Friendship Seven | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Danzante | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Falsifier | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Ravenbro | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Soup Baby | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bassman Dave | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | Light the Posse | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Step to the Bank | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Apex Predator | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Primo | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Mims | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | El Hermano | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bears Mafia | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Freudnme | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pay the Vet | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | My Girl Annie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Orchid Party | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 3 | Questeq | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Barrel of Destiny | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Tiz a Kitten | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Wantagh Queen | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pas de Deuce | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Merlins Muse | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Shak’s Hidden Gem | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Third Card Down | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Puparee | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 7 | Special Story | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.5 | 3-1 | |||||
| 1 | 1 | Regal Quality | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Muddy | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fillet of Sole | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Raging Fire | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Admiral Blue | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prince Slaughter | 50.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Domain | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Latin Love Bug | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | New York Hero | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Elios Milos | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Big Engine | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Fast Getaway | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lem Me Tel Ya | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Shamrock Kid | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Riken | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bettor Bank On It | 30.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Mystical Song | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lohengrin Two | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Rossellini | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Grand Banks | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Handle With Care | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Middle Out | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | It’s a Lovely Day | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Breeze | 50.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Two Graces | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Big Expense | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Low Is Laine | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Star Sweep | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sarah’s Rainbow | 50.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.