April 6, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Topper T | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Preamble | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | ||||
| 3 | 4 | Thomas Shelby | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Wallace | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Dalliance | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Fayette Warrior | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1A | 3 | Dixie Highway | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 15 | Runnin’ Ray | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 16 | Big Max | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 14 | Blazin Liason | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Ol Grey Ghost | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Ry’s the Guy | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Honest Mischief | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1.6 | 3-1 | |||||
| 1 | 5 | Bandit Swanson | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Twelfth Labour | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Island Song | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Camp Randall | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Zoe’s Delight | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Kneedeepinsnow | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Silverzar | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Shared Legacy | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Historian | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Methodical | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Covfefe | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge Angel | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Free Cover | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fightress | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gracetown | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gold Credit | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Road Tiger | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lavina | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Yield | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Madison’s Quarters | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sparticle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.7 | 3-1 | |||||
| 10 | 9 | Wild Shot | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Almithmaar | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Zipp On By | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Torazo | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Midnight Pleasure | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Hardest Way | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gotta Go | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Driven by History | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Giuseppe the Great | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 13 | Aife | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Aspen Summer | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Amazing Audrey | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dynabee | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cured by Kitten | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Polished | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | So Charming | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Screenwriter | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Asticou Trail | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lantiz | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Tropical Wave | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Snuck Out | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lacustre (GB) | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Commonwealth S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Copper Town | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Proforma | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Recruiting Ready | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Limousine Liberal | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Warrior’s Club | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bobby’s Wicked One | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Uncontested | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Runaway Ghost | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Still Having Fun | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Majestic Dunhill | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Uno Mas Modelo | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Richiesinthehouse | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Supreme Aura | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | New York Central | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Shakertown S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bound for Nowhere | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Conquest Tsunami | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Disco Partner | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Richard’s Boy | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Latent Revenge | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Imprimis | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jazzy Times | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Will Call | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shakhimat | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Chaos Theory | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Square Shooter | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bay Muzik | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Angaston | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Madison S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 3-1 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | Amy’s Challenge | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Late Night Pow Wow | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spiced Perfection | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Shamrock Rose | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | America’s Tale | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Divine Queen | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cathedral Reader | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sultry | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Create a Star | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Central Bank Ashland S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Feedback | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.5 | 3-1 | |||||
| 6 | 5 | Restless Rider | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jaywalk | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bizwhacks | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chocolate Kisses | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bell’s the One | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Kate | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Out for a Spin | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Toyota Blue Grass S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Signalman | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Win Win Win | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vekoma | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Somelikeithotbrown | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dream Maker | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Admire | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Parsimony | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sir Winston | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lucky Lee | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Market King | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | So Alive | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Moonster | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chess Chief | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Aquadini | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Michelles Fault | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Vasilisa | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Scary Animal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Princess Kiah | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Astoundment | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Stamp | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Delta’s Kingdom | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Art of Almost | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hungry Kitten | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Choate Bridge | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Macabre | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Scilly Isles | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She’s Got Moves | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tynagh Spirit | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tootsie | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Passport Required | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.