February 21, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | L L L College Fund | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Karslyn | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Prime Patriot | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Charlotte’s Wish | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Interslew | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Daylight Deelite | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sandy’s Wager | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Custom Made Ready | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Just Grace | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Russian Mafia | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Navy Regatta | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Dora Maar | 3.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Fun Paddy | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cimarron | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Squibnocket | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Baron of Bluegrass | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Wild Road | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Overanalyzfakenews | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hidden Secrets | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | He’s Note Worthy | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mountain Warrior | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | High Noon Rider | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Zorzor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | War Bond | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arch Cat | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yellow Wolf | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Domikate | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cookies Are Good | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chocolateicecream | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mosta Flyin | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Stealing Sunshine | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Flatoutandfoxy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Caliente Candy | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take Aletter Maria | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gator Vindication | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dreaming Diamonds | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Holy Patriot | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lancelots Lady | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Unexpected Visit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Iquique (FR) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Brenda’s Fever | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Mercken | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exotica | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Untruthful Sonnet | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Spanish Angel | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Glance | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Booneville Chapel | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Estrela Cadente | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Sailing Solo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 3 | Apollo’s Leap | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 7 | Aces High | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 4 | Rubus | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | California Swing | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | St. Augustine | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Tuff Kid | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Got Gold | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pear Lemonade | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Wellfield | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Aloo Ghost | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Woman With a Book | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Noble Companion | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Betwithbothhands | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Drummond | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sword | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Three Twins | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Plumb Line | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Idaho Tornado | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Foggy Albion | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Jericho | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 13 | Niigon’s Glory | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Santa Americana | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Meshuga | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 3 | One Kind of Crazy | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Finishlikeapro | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Curzon Street | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Point Hope | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Handiwork | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Don’t Split Tens | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Silver Giant | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Little B | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Captain Tyree | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.