Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Monday, February 18, 2019

February 18, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shanghai Smile 4.50 SCRATCH
7 6 Heartbustingirl 1.20 1.9 4-1
5 4 Rattle the Stars 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Analyze With Honor 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Star Sweep 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Alphardini 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Swaggerette 15.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Domain 10.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Admiral Blue 2.50 2 4-1
4 3 Call Me 2.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 Fillet of Sole 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 Never Nevermore 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Proximate to Power 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 2 Thank You So Much 20.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Wanna Be Regal 2.00 2 4-1
6 6 My First Gal 1.80 3 6-1
3 3 Big Expense 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 First Dawn 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Low Is Laine 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Youth Gone Wild 20.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Roses From Ben 15.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Ferncourt 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Expert 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hero’s Welcome 1.40 1.6 3-1
1 1 Trustworthy 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Potomac 2.50 3.1 6-1
8 7 Dark N Cloudy 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Dr. Hipp 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Double Deep 12.00 5 10-1
5 5 Mystical Song 20.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Pickle Rick 1.60 2.1 4-1
4 4 Grumps Little Tots 2.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Dillon Rocks 6.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Castle Casanova 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Chilly in Charge 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Habitue 8.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 My Girl Annie 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Beyond Discreet 3.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Elegant Jem 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Cotton Candy Cutie 8.00 4 7-1
7 7 That’s Smart 3.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 Summer Squeeze 10.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Cirque 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Peaches and Spice 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Big Mountain 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Pipes 3.00 SCRATCH
10 8 Kadens Courage 2.50 2 4-1
2.1 4-1
6 5 London House 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Beachside 4.00 3.3 6-1
9A 7 Rally Cap 8.00 4.6 9-1
5A 4 Trance 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Bustin to Be Loved 15.00 5 9-1
7 6 Strive for a Cure 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Riken 20.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Hollie Hughes S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Honor Up 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Build to Suit 2.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Syndergaard 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Runaway Lute 10.00 SCRATCH
5 3 Bavaro 8.00 2.3 4-1
7 5 Eye Luv Lulu 4.00 2.6 5-1
10 6 Celtic Chaos 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 2 Tribecca 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 Sudden Surprise 30.00 4.4 8-1
6 4 Bluegrass Express 30.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Third Card Down 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Itsjustnotyourday 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Cape Ann 50.00 SCRATCH
2 2 My Victoria Rose 6.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Wisconsin Night 1.20 1.7 3-1
1 1 Hattie L 8.00 2.9 6-1
7 4 Party in the Sand 4.50 2.9 6-1
11 7 Parlapiano 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 5 Claire’s Kitty 15.00 4.2 8-1
9 6 Zecha 15.00 5.3 10-1
6 3 Tiffany’s Vision 30.00 6 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.