February 16, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Outamine | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Musical Man | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Boston Bind | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Izzy’s Baby Boy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Richie Gary | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tensas Toddy | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Saint William | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bitsy’s Other Half | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jus Dream Big | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Outlaw X. | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mr True | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Colonel Power S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Leadem in Ken | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Hogy | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Latent Revenge | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Adonis Creed | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kid Perfect | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wings Locked Up | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Savage Battle | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chaos Theory | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Thenextbestthing | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Keepin It Classy | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bourbon Calling | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Seclusive | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | New Frontier | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Get the Prize | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chasing Happy | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Proschema | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Into Morocco | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hitch | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Albert M. Stall Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Promise of Spring | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Go Google Yourself | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Beau Recall (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mitchell Road | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coachwhip | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Top Cats (ARG) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pretty Lady | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kabella | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dreams Are Free | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coffee Crush | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Scary Animal | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | J D’s Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Rumandice | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Weabie | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Majestic Rose | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sister Nova | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Yes It’s Ginger | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Blinkers | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bangle Gal | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Freedom Passage | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zurlin | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Anima | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Istan Again | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Banana Union | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Jazzy Justin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Alltheway to Cairo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Please Sit Down | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Twelfth Labour | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Napoleon’s Empire | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whata Perfect Day | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gentle Warrior | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Slippy | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dynamic Force | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Rock On Kitten | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mr. Mike | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Another Mystery | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Moon Launch | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Beautiful Wall | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fever Temple | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Who’syourfavorite | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Bandit Swanson | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | By My Standards | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tapit Wise | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Free Speech | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Wok N Roll | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Golden Tiger | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eskenforit | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Parade Field | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miltontown | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cogan | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lookin High | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sevennotrump | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Iwillpersevere | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Morning Stride | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Applicator | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sun Lover (GB) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Zumurudee | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Compass Zone | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Carrick | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Monster Bea | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Go Navy Go | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Son of a Saint | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tigers Rule | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Don’task Don’ttell | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chicago Blues | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tropicat | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Zeke | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dawn Raider | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Boy | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mineshaft H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Thirstforlife | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Quip | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Long On Luck | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Imperative | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Lone Sailor | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Harlan Punch | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Flameaway | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Silver Dust | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Third Day | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mo Dont No | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Phat Man | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Krewe Chief | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ballard High | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Fair Grounds H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Long On Luck | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sun Lover (GB) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | First Premio | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Synchrony | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Big Changes | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz a Slam | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Markitoff | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Dudley Digges | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Combatant | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bandua | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Rachel Alexandra S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Chasing Yesterday | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bell’s the One | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Needs Supervision | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Serengeti Empress | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oxy Lady | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Molto Bella | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Positive Spirit | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Street Band | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Liora | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Eres Tu | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Risen Star S. Presented By Lamarque Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Kingly | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 13 | War of Will | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hog Creek Hustle | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Owendale | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Henley’s Joy | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Plus Que Parfait | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Manny Wah | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Frolic More | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dunph | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Money | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Limonite | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Gun It | 10.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Country House | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chase the Ghost | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roiland | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.