February 10, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tears for Paula | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flying Rosie | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | McIlhenny | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Any Ole Thing | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Interslew | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Weavemeawinr | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honest Bandit | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Velvet Vision | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sandy’s Wager | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Soap Bubble | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ace Destroyer | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Philosophy | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Uncapped | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tobacco Road | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mine Inspector | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vicksburg | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mr Goodman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Whatafind | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lookin At Priority | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Comebackwilson | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Balance Due | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reaffirmed | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Silver Wing Jim | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cheap Shot | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Orageuse | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Artistic Quality | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zee Ro Drop | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blessed Union | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sunniva | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Homefieldadvantage | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Business | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | I Love to Race | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Telekinesis | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Making a Marc | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Omega Moon | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Plot Twist | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | No Funny Biz | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flat Lucky | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Transatlantic Kiss | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Candy Carlos | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Big Storm Coming | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Cordero (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dragunov | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Yeowzer | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Real Glitter | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Baires Boy | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Prospector | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Senor Blanco | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A He’s an O’Prado | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | West Road | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Nine Five Four | 50.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Plug Catcher | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Salt Bae | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sultry | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Student Body | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Natalie’s Mischief | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thoughtless | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sterling Miss | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ship of the Line | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Squadron Commander | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Landofthepharaohs | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mystic Link | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tom Management | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ian Glass | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Handsome Honey | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Most Mischief | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tom’s Last General | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 9 | Chief Envoy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Citali | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cha Mono | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Silis | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Slideruler | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Moonlighting Majic | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lodi Street | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | No Richie | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Chase the Bling | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Meshuga | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.