January 20, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Savage Battle | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speight Swiftly | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wile E Peyote | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Johnny Obvious | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Clouded Judgement | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Corot | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Keep Talking | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lethal Levy | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kairos | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cairo Holiday | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pippin | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | He’s a Climber | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baja Viper | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Freightrainfreeman | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Large Scale | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Candy Carlos | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Baires Boy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | War Bond | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ghurair | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Real Glitter | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Resilient Rick | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Briar Jumper | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Theoryintopractice | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cordero (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Strut the Ring | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Don’t Split Tens | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | A He’s an O’Prado | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tommy Grossman | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | One Kind of Crazy | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Cadet Captain | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lil Kylie | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Interslew | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lil’ Sister Lou | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Keen Move | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Date | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Our Lady’s Prayer | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Speak Briley | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mylie Idel | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Emery’s Dream | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Chaos Theory | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Soul of Discretion | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Chaps | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Let’s Go Mick | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Psychic Energy | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | No Richie | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trappezoid | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
| 13 | 13 | A Song for Arch | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Im a Patriot | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Countach | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Arctic Joy | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Reverend Aj | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Snowball | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aloha Betty | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Hustle | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jus Socks | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | This Is My Prayer | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Have No Fear | 4.50 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kris T. | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Meister Missy | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Loranger Linda | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Verity Jane | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Freudian Finish | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Cypress Point | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Complete | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Illuminator | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Fever | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Darling Vera | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Holly Molly Dolly | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Freedom Passage | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lorette | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bonita Bay | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sacred Lady | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Mahalia | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Temper’s Tale | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Passport Required | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Express Lane | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Posse Dreamin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Cha Mono | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sonoma Crush | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hatties Jewel | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Citali | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ed’s Rocket | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny’s Rainbow | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Lodi Street | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chase the Bling | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Dance Caller | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Meshuga | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.