December 16, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Thread the Needle | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Communal | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hattie L | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamers and Me | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | That’s Speightful | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hurricane Sheila | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sierra Sarah | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lem Me Tel Ya | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Monteleone | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Thunder’s Honor | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Takeoff | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | I Love Jaxson | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Change of Venue | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Magnetron | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Big Thicket | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 8 | Fillet of Sole | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pretentious | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Admiral Blue | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Potomac | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Maimo | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take It to Scale | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Special Story | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Felix in Fabula | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Top of the Mint | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Show Prince | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | London House | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hushion | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Captain Frost | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bank Gala | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wisecrack | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ventus | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | D Emcee | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tied Up | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Moment of Triumph | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Salty Smile | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Esther the Queen | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Graeme | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Elizabeth Nicole | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Summer Punch | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | B Three | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mercurian | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Flatexcel | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Starship Zeus | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Expert | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | One River Place | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Transistor | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Playwright | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fifty | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dooley | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Papa Shot | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Uncle Sigh | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | J J’s Dreaming | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blame the Thief | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gio d’Oro | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gambler’s Fallacy | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gypsum Johnny | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Testosterstone | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dublinthepleasure | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Here Comes Tommy | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Holy Week | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Cartwheelin Lulu | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Kosciuszko | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Thorny Tale | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blindwillie McTell | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kadens Courage | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bustin Hoffman | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Riken | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Invaluable Will | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lost in Manhattan | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dark Money | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bebe Banker | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chicken Valley Rd | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Sander’s Empire | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | It’s a Lovely Day | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rare Gift | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiztinabella | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dirty Bird | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Devil’s Flair | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gypsy Mama | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Weekend Forecast | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flat Out Funky | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mats Checkride | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Whodunnitandran | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Semaya | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sarah’s Rainbow | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.