December 9, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Excess Capacity | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mom I Forgive You | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | I’m Guilty | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Waving Flags | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Retort | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Controllingthegold | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Queen Kantharos | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wheresthebarber | 0.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Golconda | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Theresa’s Boy | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Killala Bay | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shuffling Madness | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Platinum Nugget | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Alfeet | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Freudian Analyst | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Out of Orbit | 1.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | No Hayne No Gayne | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Rachel’s Blue Moon | 1.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pink Twist | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cause We Are Loyal | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Peaches and Spice | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Dr. Lloyd | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Rally Cap | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Silver Token | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wisecrack | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Center City | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cause for Applause | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Talespin | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wheeler Forty Five | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Barrel of Stout | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cariba | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Katama Moonlight | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moon and Stars | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mahkato | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Birdy Num | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s a Black Belt | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Noble Alma | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cover Photo | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Canarsie Girl | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Durkin’s Call | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Le General | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Beachside | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Just Right | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern King | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Honorable Hero | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Langdarma | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sanavi | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bon Raison | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sparty Boy | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fleet Irish | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shadow Rider | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kerry Boy | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Southeast | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fillet of Sole | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Devine Entry | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Baseline | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’m an Ocala Dude | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Felix in Fabula | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Appealing Henry | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gun for Hire | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fun Prospect | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.