Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 7, 2018

December 7, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Smart Step 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 House Limit 0.80 2.1 4-1
1 1 Azzedine (FR) 30.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Bad Guy 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Alrahaal 1.80 3.7 7-1
3 3 Smidge 30.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 Bold Gem 30.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Alright Alright 2.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Saratoga Heater 2.50 3.5 7-1
2A 2 Thirsty Donnerstag 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 No Distortion 3.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 We Did 4.50 4.8 9-1
5 5 King Kranz 6.00 5 9-1
4 4 Snake Oil Charlie 30.00 6.1 11-1
6A 6 Francis Freud 15.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Formal Event 3.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Tequila Sunday 2.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Blushing Justine 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Laura’s Patriot 3.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 You Promise 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 4 Princess Mikayah 10.00 4.9 9-1
9 8 Emerald Quality 6.00 5 10-1
6 5 Eight Minute Ellie 20.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Sophie Germain 20.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ja’s Malibu 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Princess Pinky 1.80 SCRATCH
1 1 Abraxan 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Diamond Princess 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 September Gurl 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Itsakeyper 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Queen of Umaill 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Stirred Not Shakin 12.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 Gunboat Diplomacy 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Forever Changed 1.40 2.8 5-1
4 4 Three Birds 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Tradeable 4.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Short Pour 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Pascha Pascha 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Mary’s Girl 10.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Quietude 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Ribbonite 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Cartwheel 2.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Flat Calm 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Shimmering Moon 5.00 4.5 8-1
9 8 Noble Freud 4.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Royal Inheritance 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 My Roxy Girl 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Fair Regis 6.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 She’s Delightful 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stay Fond 0.80 SCRATCH
7 7 Sheputaspellonme 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hoponthebusgus 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Karen’s Gem 10.00 SCRATCH
5 3 Mitchell Road 3.50 3 6-1
8A 4 Pivotal Connection (GB) 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 1 Bridaled Temper 6.00 4 7-1
12 8 Munchkin Money 2.50 4.2 8-1
10A 6 Come on City (GER) 4.50 4.8 9-1
4 2 Filfila 8.00 5.1 10-1
11 7 Goodbye Brockley 4.50 5.9 11-1
9 5 Fairy Link 15.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 D J’s Favorite 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Full House 6.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Piedi Bianchi 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Jump Ruler 12.00 3.4 6-1
9 7 Sunset Ridge 1.60 3.7 7-1
4 3 Tanya’s Gem 15.00 4 8-1
7 5 Crimson Frost 4.50 4.2 8-1
5 4 Annie Rocks 15.00 5.3 10-1
8 6 Tale of Promise 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Santo Antonio 1.60 4 8-1
6 6 Raging Fire 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Clonedsimmard 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Holycowits Patrick 12.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Local Edition 3.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Quintarelli 20.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Dublin Leprechaun 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Decadence 30.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Well in Tune 30.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Blue Skies Forever 15.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Friendship Seven 20.00 8.2 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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