Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 24, 2018

November 24, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Hard Legacy 2.50 SCRATCH
13A 13 Speedy Solution 2.00 SCRATCH
10 10 No Mo Temper 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Irish Willow 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 1 Comic Kitten 2.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Boxwood 8.00 1.9 4-1
2 1 Julia’s Ready 12.00 3.1 6-1
3 2 Silent Surprise 15.00 3.7 7-1
12 8 Support 15.00 4.3 8-1
11 7 Unapologetic Me 15.00 4.5 8-1
5 4 Fun Paddy 30.00 5.5 10-1
6 5 The Beauty’s Tale 30.00 6.7 13-1
8 6 Lancelots Lady 30.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Moonfield 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Alizee 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Delcapem 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Shacklette 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Naughty Joker 1.80 2.1 4-1
5 5 Blunt Force 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Web o’ Gold 4.00 4.3 8-1
11 10 Bess 4.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 She’s Got It All 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Mucho Mas 15.00 5 10-1
3 3 Kiss More 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 8 Folk Legend 15.00 6.8 13-1
12 11 Perfect Reins 15.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Vuyelwa 30.00 9.1 17-1
13 12 Quality to Excel 20.00 9.8 19-1
10 9 Rodhwaan 50.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Mr Ambrose 50.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Kathak 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Topsfield 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Imperial Mission 30.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Chase the Ghost 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Proud as Punch 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Impossible Mission 50.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Fluellen 4.00 SCRATCH
6 3 Johny’s Bobby 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 2 Tuaandtwentysix 8.00 3 6-1
10 7 Admire 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 5 Game Day Decision 8.00 4.3 8-1
11 8 Night Ops 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 1 Liberty’s Pursuit 10.00 6 11-1
17 10 Better Charge It 8.00 6.6 12-1
12 9 Audubon Wood 15.00 7 13-1
9 6 Split the Wickets 50.00 8.2 16-1
7 4 Caritadda’s Prince 50.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Warrior’s Charge 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Speed App 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Cabot 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Replete 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 R One 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Jersey Agenda 3.00 3 6-1
2 2 Malpais 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Valid Exchange 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Fairway Magic 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Rocknroll Rocket 6.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Jeans n’ Boots 15.00 6.2 12-1
11 10 Brother Aaron 10.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Luna’s in Charge 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Iwillpersevere 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 11 By My Standards 8.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Majestic Day 15.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Princess Athena 50.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Arch Avenue 30.00 SCRATCH
9 7 Meadow Dance 1.60 2.6 5-1
11 9 Mo Wheels Up 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Marvelous Martina 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Sense of War 3.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Beautiful Tale 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Super Simple 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Lightscameraaction 10.00 5.9 11-1
10 8 Needs Supervision 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 6 Spice It Up 30.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gamblin Train 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cirrusly 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lady Rosalie (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Miss Mahalia 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Hope So 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Temple City Terror 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Solar Kitten 4.00 SCRATCH
20A 20 Final Cut 5.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Arbitress 20.00 SCRATCH
8 4 Grandaria 4.50 3.3 6-1
14 8 Scat Maggie 4.00 3.7 7-1
1A 1 Macabre 5.00 4.4 8-1
16 9 Caliber 6.00 4.5 9-1
10 5 Cairo Cutie 5.00 4.9 9-1
19 11 Bossy Bride 2.50 5.4 10-1
13 7 Silent Fluidity 15.00 5.6 11-1
17 10 Savvy Spender 12.00 7.2 14-1
12 6 On Her Terms 15.00 7.8 15-1
7 3 La Monse 30.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Viva Per Lei 30.00 8.9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Love My Honey 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Fightress 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Miss Ximena 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lucky Girasol 30.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Lunar Orbit 3.00 2.4 5-1
9 8 Fancy Dress Party 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Wild Moment 12.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Kajawa 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 3 Midnight Karma 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Talbeya 15.00 6.2 12-1
12 10 Dreaming Diamonds 20.00 6.2 12-1
5 4 Happy’s Reflection 20.00 7 13-1
15 12 My Wynter Rose 20.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Totally Obsessed 30.00 8.2 16-1
11 9 Went With the Wind 30.00 10 19-1
14 11 Discreet Beauty 30.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Six Shooter 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Hawaiian Noises 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Distant Shore 3.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Super Steed 4.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Jack Van Berg 4.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 Distorted Jimmy 6.00 4.2 8-1
11 10 Corruze 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Hide the Demon 20.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Boldor 4.00 5.3 10-1
12 11 Absolute Control 20.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Lady’s Weekend 30.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Spectacular Gem 30.00 9 17-1
8 7 Irish Oak 50.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Golden Rod S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Restless Rider 1.40 1.9 4-1
8 8 Break Curfew 1.80 2.9 6-1
1 1 Gold Credit 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Reflect 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Champagne Anyone 10.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Princess Causeway 8.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 High Regard 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Liora 12.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Homefortheweekend 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Dynamic Racer 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 So Alive 2.50 2 4-1
9 8 King Ford 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Synthesis 4.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Borracho 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Forloveofcountry 15.00 5.3 10-1
11 10 Thousand Percent 8.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Moonster 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Tiergan 10.00 6.6 12-1
12 11 Classic Czar 15.00 8.1 15-1
14 12 Tactical Quality 30.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Maximum Force 30.00 9.5 18-1
7 7 I Will Stand 30.00 9.7 18-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Kentucky Allstar 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Manny Wah 20.00 SCRATCH
13 12 Knicks Go 2.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Signalman 2.50 2.9 5-1
4 3 Dunph 6.00 2.9 6-1
6 5 Blue Steel 15.00 5.1 10-1
12 11 King for a Day 8.00 5.6 11-1
9 8 Current 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 Plus Que Parfait 20.00 7 13-1
2 2 Tracksmith 20.00 7.7 15-1
14 13 Topper T 20.00 8.6 16-1
8 7 Royal Urn 30.00 9.4 18-1
7 6 Limonite 20.00 9.5 18-1
10 9 Roiland 20.00 9.9 19-1
11 10 Mick’s Star 30.00 10.5 20-1
15 14 Everfast 30.00 11.1 21-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Thomas Shelby 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Proud Nation 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Claytnthelionheart 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Quicksilver 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Thetrashmanscoming 15.00 SCRATCH
10 9 War of Will 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Derby Date 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Locally Owned 3.00 3.6 7-1
9 8 Curlin Grey 8.00 4.4 8-1
11 10 Bundibunan 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 A. K. Safari 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Gentle Warrior 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Candizar 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Freedom’s Flight 20.00 8.5 16-1
12 11 Agitator 20.00 8.6 16-1
8 7 Hoped For 20.00 9.4 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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