November 23, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8C | 8 | Jay Vee Bee | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mr Midtown | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Glorious Weekend | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Babeswildweekend | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Abernathy | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11C | 10 | Trashtalkinyankee | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Over Protective | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fine Tune | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chief Minister | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7B | 7 | Spire | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10B | 9 | Storm Rider | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Copper Bullet | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Honorable Treasure | 1.40 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Knights Key | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wild Shot | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Barry Lee | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Storm Runner | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Event Driven | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cedar Creek | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Coleman Rocky | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One Fine Ride | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Karma Delight | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mutation | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mias Moonbeam | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bango Box | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Got the Notion | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dos Cuernos | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Gettysburg | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Grandpa Knows Best | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’ve Got Heart | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tres Equis | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Istillgotit | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Biloxi Bay | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Southsider | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Two Stepping Groom | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | So Caught Up in U | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hawk | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Florida Boys | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Out of the Office | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | How’s My Bud | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bluegrass Gem | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ship Stalker | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Flat Out Fast | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Harlan’s Dynamo | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Lucky Perfection | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Burnt Bluff | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Mia Tiva Too | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Calandave | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Sweetest Appeal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lady Blue | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Full Steam | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | La Monse | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hawt Mess | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Headland | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Take Charge Gina | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Papa’s Girl | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Systematic | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mrs Poochie | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miz Nightcap | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twins Plus a Dot | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | First to Dance | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Flashy Biz | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | All Fact | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foxy Shot | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | My Bariley | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mottaret | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Markitoff | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Convict Pike | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honovi | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Souper Tapit | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cape Angel | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aktabantay (GB) | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | All Right | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Dubby Dubbie | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Vigilante | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11A | 9 | Slickly Done | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13A | 11 | Stewards Rules | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mineyerownmalone | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drunken Fridays | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Jerrid | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10A | 10 | Esposito | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Memphisinmay | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Long On Luck | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fat Daddy | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hickory Hill | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ceeky | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Here Comes Doc | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lngtermrelationshp | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Capture the Glory | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Courage and Honor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tempestad | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hello Holiday | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Rare Form | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Mo’s Mojo | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Amiral | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Ballard High | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Bryzzo | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Big Gemmy | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Ghost Story | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Lenstar | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 11 | Naples Trader | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Aqwaam | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Determinant | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Mrs. Revere S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Over Thinking | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | High Tech | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Princess Warrior | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cool Beans | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Get Explicit | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Angel of Mischief | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Stella di Camelot (IRE) | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kabella | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lessons From Avery | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Dark Artist | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Divine Queen | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Arabella Bella | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Clark H. Presented By Norton Healthcare
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Seeking the Soul | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prime Attraction | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Leofric | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hence | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bravazo | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hawaakom | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Storm Advisory | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sightforsoreeyes | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Victory Lane | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Apollo’s Leap | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Franknjymme | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | New Colossus | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Presidential Tweet | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kansas City Zip | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Just Like Richie | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Timbrook | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Laser Loop | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.