November 22, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Conquest Windycity | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlins Vow | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pitch Count | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hollywood Critic | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fish Trappe Road | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Discreetness | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Flash n’ Dance | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Say It Softly | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Moolamiss | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Socata | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mischievious Lass | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burke’s Garden | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Whenwillicuagain | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nautia | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rockyshack | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Wings Up | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Luck of the Draw | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Clench | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sacred Kiki Bird | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | The Kid in Syd | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Byron Bay | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lochabar | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shadow Boxing | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jett Rink | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Live Fast Brown | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Slovak Power | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Oats | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | As Fast as You Can | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Clever Serve | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lesley May | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shackleford County | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Move | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Absolute Love | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | East Moon | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lil Vie | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Broome | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Balandeen | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hogy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Control Stake | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Extravagant Kid | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zipp On By | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tough Stuff | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Undrafted | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Kid Perfect | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dragon Drew | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Latent Revenge | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chief Hosa | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Shacklette | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Eye’s Reward | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Vomba | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Irish Mischief | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Neon Light | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Diamond Crazy | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Whoa Nellie | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grams Future | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | How Did She Do It | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Army of One | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sonoma Storm | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome One | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Giro Kate | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Majestic Move | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Criminal Mischief | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hymn to Inanna | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Waki Patriot | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Honor With Pride | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Foxy Mischief | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sterling Miss | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Natasha Fatale | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sophie’s Angel | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bella Bailar | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Starvana | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Special for You | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shady Violence | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ulele | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Exsqueeze Me | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’sonthewarpath | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Northern Beauty | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Les Biz | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Angel’s Cut | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jo Marie | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I’mabarnkat | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Live It Up | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Free Cover | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Cardinal H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | I Remember Mama | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | English Affair | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Amboseli | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Coachwhip | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bonnie Arch | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Space Cadet | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | La Manta Gris | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lipstick City | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Coco Channel | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Unbridled Escape | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | M G Warrior | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nun the Less | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rated R Superstar | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Rocking the Boat | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Altito | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Archanova | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Pleasure | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Finglas | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Heavy Roller | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Iconic | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Action Everyday | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Falls City H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Honor Ride | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Divine Miss Grey | 0.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mannerly | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dreamcall | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Prado’s Sweet Ride | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dutch Parrot | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Red Dane (ITY) | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Skeptic | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Shamal | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Limari | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Slippery | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Artistic Quality | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | U. S. Currency | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Too Much Detail | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Celia’s Song | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Regal Serenade | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Coexistence | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Homefieldadvantage | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Twin Channel | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Tapitai | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Data Star | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Latest Version | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Ajfan | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cause Libby Knows | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tripple Step | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.