Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 22, 2018

November 22, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Conquest Windycity 1.80 2.6 5-1
1 1 Curlins Vow 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Pitch Count 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Hollywood Critic 2.50 4 7-1
4 4 Fish Trappe Road 5.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Discreetness 12.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Flash n’ Dance 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Say It Softly 3.00 3 6-1
8 7 Moolamiss 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 4 Socata 4.50 4.3 8-1
7 6 Mischievious Lass 4.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Burke’s Garden 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Whenwillicuagain 6.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Nautia 30.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rockyshack 20.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Wings Up 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 1 Luck of the Draw 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Clench 4.50 3.8 7-1
5 4 Sacred Kiki Bird 3.50 3.8 7-1
8 7 The Kid in Syd 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Byron Bay 15.00 6.5 12-1
12 11 Lochabar 12.00 6.8 13-1
10 9 Shadow Boxing 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 8 Jett Rink 20.00 7.8 15-1
7 6 Live Fast Brown 30.00 8.2 15-1
11 10 Slovak Power 15.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sweet Oats 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 As Fast as You Can 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Clever Serve 4.00 3.6 7-1
9 7 Lesley May 3.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Shackleford County 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Lucky Move 5.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Absolute Love 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 6 East Moon 4.50 4.7 9-1
7 5 Lil Vie 30.00 5.8 11-1
10 8 Broome 5.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Balandeen 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Hogy 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Control Stake 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Extravagant Kid 2.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Zipp On By 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Tough Stuff 20.00 4.2 8-1
9 7 Undrafted 2.50 4.6 9-1
10 8 Kid Perfect 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Dragon Drew 20.00 5 9-1
6 5 Latent Revenge 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 6 Chief Hosa 20.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Shacklette 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Eye’s Reward 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Vomba 2.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Irish Mischief 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Neon Light 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Diamond Crazy 6.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Whoa Nellie 8.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Grams Future 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 How Did She Do It 15.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Army of One 8.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Sonoma Storm 10.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Awesome One 15.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Giro Kate 20.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Majestic Move 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Criminal Mischief 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Hymn to Inanna 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Waki Patriot 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Honor With Pride 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Foxy Mischief 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 7 Sterling Miss 5.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Natasha Fatale 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Sophie’s Angel 15.00 6 11-1
9 8 Bella Bailar 15.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Drop Dead Gorgeous 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Starvana 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Special for You 15.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Shady Violence 6.00 5 9-1
11 11 Ulele 2.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Exsqueeze Me 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 She’sonthewarpath 15.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Northern Beauty 3.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Les Biz 3.50 5.8 11-1
5 5 Angel’s Cut 12.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Jo Marie 15.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 I’mabarnkat 20.00 7.7 14-1
6 6 Live It Up 30.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Free Cover 15.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Cardinal H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 I Remember Mama 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 English Affair 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Amboseli 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Coachwhip 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Bonnie Arch 4.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Space Cadet 12.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 La Manta Gris 6.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Lipstick City 10.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Coco Channel 10.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Unbridled Escape 30.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 M G Warrior 4.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Nun the Less 3.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Rated R Superstar 2.50 4.5 9-1
10 10 Rocking the Boat 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Altito 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Archanova 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Midnight Pleasure 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Finglas 15.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Heavy Roller 10.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Iconic 12.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Action Everyday 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Falls City H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Honor Ride 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Divine Miss Grey 0.60 1.9 4-1
2 2 Mannerly 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Dreamcall 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Prado’s Sweet Ride 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Dutch Parrot 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 7 Red Dane (ITY) 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Skeptic 12.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Shamal 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Limari 3.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Slippery 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Artistic Quality 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 U. S. Currency 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Too Much Detail 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Celia’s Song 2.50 1.8 3-1
10 7 Regal Serenade 6.00 3.4 6-1
13 10 Coexistence 3.50 3.8 7-1
11 8 Homefieldadvantage 10.00 5.4 10-1
6 4 Twin Channel 3.50 5.8 11-1
12 9 Tapitai 20.00 6 11-1
14 11 Data Star 30.00 6.3 12-1
8 5 Latest Version 20.00 6.6 12-1
9 6 Ajfan 30.00 7.6 14-1
3 2 Cause Libby Knows 12.00 7.7 14-1
4 3 Tripple Step 50.00 9.5 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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