November 21, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Baffin Bay | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lone Pioneer | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | You Betcha | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Catch Me If U Can | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Don Ciccio | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Le Gros Bill | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Coach Villa | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Deputy Zapper | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ride On Faith | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Thank You So Much | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Blurred Line | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Glennrichment | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fifty | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | River of Dreams | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ajnadeen | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Timber Ghost | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Killybegs Captain | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pete’s Play Call | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Still Krz | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | American Commander | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Demarchelier (GB) | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Malthael | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seismic Wave | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dr. English | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lisbon | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sea of Hope | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unbridled Mesa | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bronxville | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hubba Bubba | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tintoretto (GER) | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tanya’s Gem | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dawn the Destroyer | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mrs. Ramona G. | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Nomorerichblondes | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Eloweasel | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Annie Rocks | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Go Astray | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Decadence | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Flat Out Jayvien | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Millies Party Boy | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Okeamo | 1.20 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Local Edition | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Raging Fire | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Clonedsimmard | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Da King and I | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Dublin Leprechaun | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Zealous | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 4 | Argonne | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chantry Flats | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rhode Island | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Inle | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mini P (IRE) | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Le Condor (GER) | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Azzedine (FR) | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Morning Breez | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Blewitt | 1.80 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stoney Bennett | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sicilia Mike | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | T Loves a Fight | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Benevolence | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bavaro | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cerretalto | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Horoscope | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Brimstone | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Eden Ridge | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Extinct Charm | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mobridge | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cloontia | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Macagone | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fox Rules | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz a Chance | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | With Exultation | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Manifest Destiny | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ode to the Hunt | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blue Pigeon | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Peculiar Sensation | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Risky Sour | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.