Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 21, 2018

November 21, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Baffin Bay 1.40 2.7 5-1
4 4 Lone Pioneer 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 You Betcha 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Catch Me If U Can 4.00 4 7-1
1 1 Don Ciccio 20.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Le Gros Bill 6.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Coach Villa 8.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Deputy Zapper 30.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ride On Faith 3.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Thank You So Much 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 3 Blurred Line 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Glennrichment 2.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Fifty 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 River of Dreams 5.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ajnadeen 2.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Timber Ghost 1.20 2.5 5-1
2 2 Killybegs Captain 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Pete’s Play Call 3.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Still Krz 4.50 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 American Commander 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Demarchelier (GB) 3.50 3 6-1
8 7 Malthael 3.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Seismic Wave 4.50 4.1 8-1
5 4 Dr. English 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 5 Lisbon 10.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Sea of Hope 8.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Unbridled Mesa 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 6 Bronxville 15.00 6.9 13-1
10 9 Hubba Bubba 12.00 7.2 14-1
11 10 Tintoretto (GER) 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tanya’s Gem 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Dawn the Destroyer 1.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Mrs. Ramona G. 1.40 1.9 4-1
6 4 Nomorerichblondes 3.00 3.1 6-1
7 5 Eloweasel 4.00 4 7-1
5 3 Annie Rocks 5.00 4 8-1
4 2 Go Astray 6.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Decadence 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Flat Out Jayvien 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Millies Party Boy 2.50 2.9 5-1
7 5 Okeamo 1.20 2.9 6-1
8 6 Local Edition 5.00 4.3 8-1
5 3 Raging Fire 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 2 Clonedsimmard 20.00 4.6 9-1
6 4 Da King and I 30.00 5.2 10-1
9 7 Dublin Leprechaun 10.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 2 Zealous 1.80 SCRATCH
1A 4 Argonne 1.80 1.9 4-1
2 1 Chantry Flats 2.50 3.1 6-1
3 2 Rhode Island 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Inle 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Mini P (IRE) 3.50 5.3 10-1
5 5 Le Condor (GER) 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Azzedine (FR) 20.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Morning Breez 4.00 3 6-1
9 9 Blewitt 1.80 4.2 8-1
7 7 Stoney Bennett 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Sicilia Mike 8.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 T Loves a Fight 12.00 5 9-1
6 6 Benevolence 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Bavaro 15.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Cerretalto 8.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Horoscope 15.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Brimstone 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Eden Ridge 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Extinct Charm 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mobridge 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Cloontia 4.50 4.4 8-1
11 10 Macagone 2.50 4.5 8-1
2 2 Fox Rules 8.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Tiz a Chance 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 With Exultation 5.00 5.6 10-1
7 6 Manifest Destiny 20.00 6.5 12-1
12 11 Ode to the Hunt 15.00 7.1 13-1
6 5 Blue Pigeon 30.00 7.2 14-1
8 7 Peculiar Sensation 20.00 7.6 14-1
10 9 Risky Sour 20.00 8.4 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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