November 18, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Royal Edition | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Sea | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eclipsed Moon | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Applewood | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Soul of the Hero | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Auld Cup | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cody | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hellfire | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Erin’s Wish | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sheswildnfree | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Patti Patti Patti | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Myositis Mystique | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Penny Lynn | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Colonial Jill | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Oxford Comma | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Miss O’Hara | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Excessivespending | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Justa Lady | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Girls Know Best | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Goldberry | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Cathedral Reader | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6A | 3 | Sweet Angel Roan | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | Angel Heritage | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Knocks Big Thirst | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Majid | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Battalstown | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Brewer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Truly Stellar | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Divine Favor | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | John Paul Jones | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Math Wizard | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | No Mistake N Me | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Noble Venture | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trask | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Deweycheatemanhowe | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Auctioneer | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dreamin N Schemin | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ipurrfurcandy | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Felipe | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Weiland | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Collection | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Charge to Victory | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | One Bet From Even | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Land Broker | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Call Me Richard | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bar Stool Budget | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Del La Hoya | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | He’s No Bull | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Philosophy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Brother Aaron | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Zipaway | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | One Flew South | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Malpais | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tweezer (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 19 | 19 | Jersey Agenda | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20 | 20 | Fairway Magic | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Zeroed In | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Uncapped | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Grenadier | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Trip Candy | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Handsome Honey | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Roughin the City | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Miltontown | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Hooray for Harvey | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 16 | 12 | Henry’s Bend | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Just Might | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 11 | Beyond the Arch | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Silent Force | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14A | 14 | Bunzlauer | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sky Draw | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Rhyder Time | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Fightingjoewheeler | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Big Iron | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Perplexed | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zaevion | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sharp Money | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Checkmark | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Laughing Levi | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ramblingrudyrags | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Wind Rhapsody | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Can Go | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | War Venture | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Krissys Manicure | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Musabaqa | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | You’re the Reason | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Moon | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Parking Ticket | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Heavenly Hill | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Iron Lilly | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Silver Saver | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sheltowee’s Loca | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Holly Go Lightly | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20A | 20 | East Moon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lady Oxbow | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tiz Taken Back | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Sweet Oats | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Innocent | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lessons From Avery | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Moonlight Rain | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Riverside Walk (GB) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Broome | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bridaled Temper | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tour d’Argent | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Market Top | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jaunt | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jet Away Sue | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 19 | 6 | As Fast as You Can | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Oh My | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Runninwiththewind | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 5 | Lady Beware (IRE) | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Tapitor | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Break the Deal | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Interlaken | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Blue Mesa | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Cheytac | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Testy Kitten | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alexandros | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Crescent Warrior | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dahik | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Finished | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pray for Kitten | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pistol Box | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Manifestant | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Shotte | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Watch What Happens | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.