Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 18, 2018

November 18, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Royal Edition 2.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 American Sea 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Eclipsed Moon 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Applewood 3.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Soul of the Hero 5.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Auld Cup 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Cody 15.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Hellfire 30.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Erin’s Wish 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Sheswildnfree 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Patti Patti Patti 4.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Myositis Mystique 4.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Penny Lynn 5.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Colonial Jill 5.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Oxford Comma 2.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Miss O’Hara 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Excessivespending 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Justa Lady 6.00 SCRATCH
7 4 Girls Know Best 1.60 2 4-1
5 2 Goldberry 8.00 3 6-1
9 5 Cathedral Reader 2.50 3.1 6-1
6A 3 Sweet Angel Roan 30.00 4.3 8-1
2A 1 Angel Heritage 30.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Knocks Big Thirst 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Majid 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Battalstown 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Brewer 12.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Truly Stellar 4.50 2 4-1
6 6 Divine Favor 5.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 John Paul Jones 6.00 3.2 6-1
10 9 Math Wizard 8.00 3.9 7-1
11 10 No Mistake N Me 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Noble Venture 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Trask 15.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Deweycheatemanhowe 12.00 7 13-1
2 2 Auctioneer 15.00 8.1 15-1
9 8 Dreamin N Schemin 15.00 8.9 17-1
12 11 Ipurrfurcandy 20.00 9.7 18-1
13 12 Felipe 20.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Weiland 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Collection 5.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Charge to Victory 3.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 One Bet From Even 5.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Land Broker 12.00 5 9-1
6 6 Call Me Richard 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Bar Stool Budget 6.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Del La Hoya 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 He’s No Bull 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Philosophy 5.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Brother Aaron 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Zipaway 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 One Flew South 8.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Malpais 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Tweezer (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH
19 19 Jersey Agenda 4.00 SCRATCH
20 20 Fairway Magic 8.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Zeroed In 3.00 2.2 4-1
9 7 Uncapped 5.00 3 6-1
8 6 Grenadier 8.00 3 6-1
5 4 Trip Candy 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Handsome Honey 12.00 5 9-1
12 10 Roughin the City 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 5 Miltontown 12.00 7.7 15-1
11 9 Hooray for Harvey 15.00 7.9 15-1
16 12 Henry’s Bend 20.00 8.5 16-1
4 3 Just Might 12.00 8.5 16-1
15 11 Beyond the Arch 20.00 8.9 17-1
10 8 Silent Force 20.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14A 14 Bunzlauer 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Sky Draw 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Rhyder Time 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Fightingjoewheeler 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Big Iron 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Perplexed 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Zaevion 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Sharp Money 5.00 3.7 7-1
10 8 Checkmark 20.00 6 11-1
12 10 Laughing Levi 20.00 6.3 12-1
9 7 Ramblingrudyrags 15.00 6.5 12-1
11 9 Wind Rhapsody 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 5 Can Go 20.00 7.3 14-1
5A 4 War Venture 30.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Krissys Manicure 4.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Musabaqa 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 You’re the Reason 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Bella Moon 4.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Parking Ticket 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Heavenly Hill 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Iron Lilly 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Silver Saver 12.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Sheltowee’s Loca 20.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Holly Go Lightly 8.00 SCRATCH
20A 20 East Moon 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lady Oxbow 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Ellens Birthday 50.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tiz Taken Back 8.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Sweet Oats 50.00 SCRATCH
11A 11 Innocent 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Lessons From Avery 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Moonlight Rain 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Riverside Walk (GB) 10.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Broome 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Bridaled Temper 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Tour d’Argent 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Market Top 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Jaunt 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Jet Away Sue 8.00 3.4 6-1
19 6 As Fast as You Can 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 4 Oh My 4.00 4 7-1
3 2 Runninwiththewind 12.00 4.2 8-1
14 5 Lady Beware (IRE) 20.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Tapitor 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Break the Deal 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Interlaken 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Blue Mesa 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Cheytac 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Testy Kitten 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Alexandros 6.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Crescent Warrior 4.50 4.9 9-1
11 11 Dahik 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Finished 15.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Pray for Kitten 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Pistol Box 12.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Hitthegroundrunnin 15.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Manifestant 15.00 8 15-1
4 4 Bourbon Shotte 20.00 9 17-1
1 1 Watch What Happens 20.00 10.2 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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