Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 18, 2018

November 18, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Master Distiller 1.40 1.8 3-1
2 2 Dream Friend 2.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Miracle Hill 1.80 3.7 7-1
3 3 Count Flanker 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Smidge 20.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Copperline 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Saratoga Sass 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Lady Camille 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Pound Note 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Crater Rim 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Andretta 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Dreamers and Me 2.00 2.6 5-1
13 7 In Denile 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Overtime Olivia 4.50 3.2 6-1
14 8 Anne’s Song 8.00 4.6 9-1
12 6 Prisoner’s Dilemma 3.00 4.6 9-1
6 3 Emblazoner 10.00 5.4 10-1
8 5 Magical Romance 30.00 6.5 12-1
7 4 Mickey Diamond 20.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fast Track Kathern 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Amazing Audrey 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Hera 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Theaterintheround 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Beau Belle 0.00 SCRATCH
16 11 Arewehavingfunyet 5.00 2.8 5-1
14 9 Stay Fond 1.00 2.8 5-1
11 8 Keota 4.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Classic Lady 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 4 Danielle’s Pride 12.00 6 11-1
5 3 Anne Dupree 15.00 6.5 12-1
15 10 Smiles From Sadie 6.00 6.8 13-1
9 6 Hot Liaison 10.00 6.9 13-1
10 7 Puparee 30.00 7.1 13-1
8 5 Sweet Like Char 20.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Vip Nation 20.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wise Strike 1.00 2 4-1
1 1 Science Fiction 2.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Midnight Crossing 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Athwaaq 3.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Florida First 10.00 5 9-1
4 4 Know Point Given 30.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Run From Theheat 50.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 I’m Guilty 10.00 SCRATCH
3 2 White Mischief 2.00 2.8 5-1
2 1 Angelia 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Triumphant 3.50 3.6 7-1
7 6 Romantic Pursuit 4.50 4.5 9-1
8 7 Jasminesque 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 3 Mega Fortune 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 4 Noble Alma 8.00 5.3 10-1
9 8 Sheza Diva 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Another 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Identity Politics 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Eagle Pass 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Desperado 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Strike 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bon Raison 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Rapt 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Flyoff 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Morrison 5.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Illudere 4.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Mo Diddley 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Leaveematthegate 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Shamcat 30.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 My Boy Tate 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fleet Irish 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Benevolence 12.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Gold for the King 1.40 1.8 3-1
4 3 Loki’s Vengeance 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Winston’s Chance 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Tribecca 10.00 4.5 8-1
6 4 Sudden Surprise 12.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 My Roxy Girl 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Shimmering Moon 2.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Wilburnmoney 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Royal Inheritance 15.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Mentality 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 5 Broken Border 4.00 3.5 7-1
9 8 Awsum Roar 6.00 4 8-1
10 9 Hannah’s Smile 3.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 Overnegotiate 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Alabama Bound 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 2 Saratoga Treasure 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Timely Tradition 15.00 7 13-1
7 6 Miss Mystique 20.00 7.7 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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